Saturday, March 28, 2009

My Country’s Parliament Isn’t Your Personal Plaything

If I remember correctly, it was in the fifth grade that my school organized an excursion to a ceramic factory for our entire class. The factory belonged to a classmate’s father and we were treated as VIPs by all the employees for we were guests of the owner. The memory of that trip came flooding back to me as I watched President Zardari deliver a speech to the parliament. Seated amongst the guests was the President's son, flanked by a group of his gora teenaged friends.



(skip to 0:38)

Is our Parliament now a more comfortable 'third world experience' excursion?

Wouldn’t it have been more appropriate to invite more deserving and accomplished individuals to hear this important address?

Perhaps I'm overreacting, but this just didn't seem right to me.

P.S.

Is Zarari officially trying to replace Jinnah with Benazir? This is the latest in a series of appearances by the President where BB’s portrait has been prominently displayed whereas the Quaid’s portrait is nowhere to be found.

[Correction: An earlier version of this post wrongly stated that this was Pres. Zardari's first speech to Parliament. Reader MZ alerted us that this was not the case, the President first spoke to the Parliament on 20-09-08.]

Links For The Weekend

It's been a while since I posted links. Lots of stuff to keep you guys busy on the weekend. Let's get right into it.

Here's a bunch of Pakistan/security related stuff. First, a report on the suicide bombing in Khyber agency which has killed more than 50 people. You may be perceptive enough to notice that there are no candle-light vigils or communal prayers or Facebook groups for these people. They are nameless, faceless victims, and will always remain so.

By the way, this report in Dawn calls the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan "defunct". Either I missed some very big news recently or Dawn doesn't understand the meaning of the word "defunct".

Anyway, here's the well-traveled NYT story from earlier in the week which detailed the continuing links between intelligence agencies in Pakistan and the Taliban. I strongly suggest you read the entire thing carefully and come to your own conlusions about what is being definitively said and what is not being definitively said. And finally, here's a story detailing the closer cooperation between the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani Taliban -- the division of which I have always maintained was overblown.

Let's move on. Those who read my conversation with JJY might be interested in these two posts from Five Thirty Eight. First, Nate Silver has a very interesting post on the fact that financial services people might indeed be overpaid, and why this is so. Even if you disagree with that idea, I really encourage you to read it. Second, he has a friendlier post toward Wall Streeters by talking about his Indian American friend, and how not everyone on Wall Street is actually evil.

Here's an unbelievable video of a man being robbed in an ATM in Karachi. What amazes me is how matter-of-fact the entire episode seems to be (via Karachi Metroblogs).



Mearsheimer asks what the future of Israel on its present trajectory looks like. Are you trying to tell me you're not going to click on a link which features the words "the Battle of Armageddon and then the Second Coming of Christ"?

Staying on the topic of religion, Amit Varma is bemused at the fact that a woman in UP thought she was a mere rhino sacrifice away from marriage.

Funniest video of the week award goes to The Onion, for this report on Prague's airport. The line at the end about the Dostoevsky hotel killed me.



Prague's Franz Kafka International Named World's Most Alienating Airport

And if you're interested in the general concept of "funny", please make sure to watch the latest episode of South Park. It was the funniest episode in about two or three seasons. No question.

You didn't really think I would go through this big a links post without anything on Obama, did you? Here's a story in the Chicago Tribune on how Obama's time as a Con Law prof at the U of C law school influenced him and his ideas (via Freakonomics). There's also a bunch of quotes from people he knew here. As usual, it's everyone but that Epstein fellow with good things to say.

Staying on the U of C theme, here's an article on how the underground economy (drugs, prostitution etc) is suffering in the recession (link courtesy the W). The article is centered on Sudhir Venkatesh, the famous sociologist who got his PhD from Chicago, and spent his years here researching the drug-and-violence-ridden projects on the South Side. I wrote about Venkatesh's book Gang Leader For a Day about a year ago, for those who are interested.

Finally, a great column in the Guardian on the greatest midfields ever. Reading the comments, the consensus picks seem to be: Brazil in 1982, AC Milan in the late 80s and early 90s, France in the late 90s, and a few others. This, however, was my favorite comment:
Wittgenstein - Hegel - Marx - Nietzche

Oh, those Guardian readers. But wasn't Wittgenstein Austrian? Oh, well. I guess Austrians are half Germans anyway.

Have a good weekend, guys.

Friday, March 27, 2009

YouTube Of The Day

I'm a child.

Lost Season Five: Episode 10

I've had an incredibly busy few days and its only going to get worse over the next week, so let's quickly go over the high points of yesterday's episode, 'He's Our You'.

- Last week I speculated that Sayid would try to kill Little Ben but that he wouldn't be successful. It feels good to be at least half right but boy did Ben look like he was killed by that shot to his heart. But next week we're going to find out he survived, aren't we? Maybe the Island won't let him die. Or maybe Ben is dead and our favourite character has been a ghost all along, ala Christian Shepherd.

- If we assume that Ben is alive then this is a real game-changer. It would mean that he knew all along who would come back to the Island, thatr Sayid would try and to kill him, what time period the Oceanic 6 would come back to and that Jin is still alive. Ironically, being shot gave Ben a big advantage. But also consider this possibility. The Ben we see is at a cross roads. He is leaning in the direction of the Hostiles but he hasn't fully committed yet. What is being shot by Sayid was the catalyst that finally drove him to the other side and made him the heartless Machivellean schemer we love so much? Alternately, consider how Ben being dead would be an even bigger game-changer. Actually, don't. It will just make your head spin. I'm going to have to brush up on my time travel this week by rereading Kurt Vonnegut's Slaughterhouse-Five and rewatching Twelve Monkeys.

- This episode was old-school Lost, with glimpses of a character's past revealing more about his motivations in the present (or the present-past as the case may be). This is actually a lot of fun when it is used sparingly. And we really got to know a lot of explanations for Sayid's conflicting views on his violent nature. Anyone who has criticized Naveen Andrews' acting will surely have to eat their words now.

- The opening scene of Little Sayid killing the chicken so that the other kid wouldn't have do reminded me of Mr Eko shooting the kid to protect his brother. I just love the parallels on this show.

- Ben telling Sayid that he thinks Locke has been murdered. Finally we know more about what's going on than the characters themselves.

- When the Dharma guys find Ben shot (or dead), Jin unconscious and Sayid gone, they are going to smell a rat. LaFleur's life of peace and harmony is about to come to an end.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

A Conversation With A Wall Streeter

So over the last couple of days, JJY and I have exchanged a bunch of emails. JJY is originally from Bombay/Mumbai and was my roommate at college. Of course, we chose different career paths. He decided to sell his soul and work for what he describes as a "large bulge bracket bank" in New York. I decided to remain true to myself and go to grad school to study Political Science. I also have no idea what the hell "bulge bracket bank" means.

We covered a lot of topics: the AIG exec who quit via a letter to the New York Times, bonuses on Wall Street, the structures of compensation in academia vs. finance, Barack Obama, newspapers, health care, and whom we'd like to be with on a deserted island for a week. Without further ado...
_____________________________________________________________________________________

Ahsan: Did you read the AIG exec who quit with a letter to the New York Times? It's all over all the blogs.

JJY: Yes. I emailed you the link, in fact. From knowing my broad views on the subject and my chosen (well, sort of anyway) course of employment, I'm assuming you already know that I sympathize with his plight.

Michael Lewis had an excellent article on Bloomberg on the subject as well.

What did you think?

Ahsan: I think it's tough to feel sympathy toward people who have been overpaid their entire lives, but we'll get to that shortly.

Let's talk a little bit about his "plight" as you call it. His plight, it seems to me, is that he now works for a company that is not just answerable to the usual set of movers and shakers, but instead to all of its stockholders, including the larger public. And given his boss is answerable to the larger public, he (his boss that is) has found it convenient to throw some people under the bus.

Is that a fair characterization of his plight, or am I missing something?

JJY: The "overpaid" statement is debatable, but I'm sure we'll get to that in due course. I completely agree that in general, the Financial Services industry is a bubble that is fairly disconnected from other industries, but I'm not sure that's the fault of the people being paid, but may have more to do with how we, i.e. society, measure the value of their services. Anyway, we'll get to that in a bit.

As far as his plight - yes, that's fairly accurate, with one additional point - he was not at fault for AIG's current state. I thought the electrician - plumber analogy quite apt.

Ahsan: Here's my problem with this woe-is-me-ness of this AIG exec. If it wasn't for public money, he would not have a job. End of story. They would be like Lehman: a footnote, consigned to the dustbin of history. And now he has the gall to question a certain degree of accountability? The only reason he gets to wear an Armani suit to work every day is because of taxpayers' dollars helping him and his company out. When you help someone out, you get to direct the show a little bit.

Look, I understand mobs are unruly and unfair. No question -- many people have been demonized when they don't deserve to be. But equally disturbing is these people's warped view of the world, where they have been singularly wronged. I don't think these people understand how ludicrous their arguments seem to the world that doesn't live on Wall Street.

JJY: I disagree with you there. He wouldn't have a job with AIG. He's the head of their Commodities desk, and I'm sure he would have no trouble finding work with another FI. You'd be surprised at the number of senior folk that jumped from Lehman to the other large, and small, banks when the Barclays deal happened. He stayed at his current job, working 12 hrs a day etc, only because of a sense of loyalty to the company. Relax, I'm only kidding...it was clearly for the money he was promised at the end of the year. Which he has now essentially been cheated out of. And what's more, he's being villainized for something he had nothing to do with! What does his situation have to do with questioning accountability?

Here's my problem with this public bloodbath: Yes, AIG did bad things. But the people that did those bad things were clearly only a fraction of the 400 people employees in this division. Why does everyone have to suffer as a result?

To use an obviously hyperbolic analogy - if one person in Company A was caught stealing money, would you send everyone employed by Company A to jail?

Ahsan: Well, I think that's a fair point, but it ignores the very obvious parallels to the entire crisis. In many ways, we've ALL been sent to jail because SOME people were caught stealing money. The U.S. economy is losing something like 700,000 jobs a month -- forget economies around the world in bigger trouble like Iceland and Spain.

I did not take a too-easy loan to buy a house whose price I thought I would continue to rise irrationally. I did not work at a financial institution that made that loan possible, nor did I work at a financial institution that leveraged that loan into godknowswhat to make a profit. I was not a regulator who continued to look away, nor was I a financial journalist or economist who saw no trouble with this house of cards (and I use that phrase in all senses of the term). And yet I, like many others who did nothing wrong whatsoever, am suffering from this crisis, because my wife is now working part-time with no health benefits, and I'm still at grad school, and our short and medium term future is not exactly secure.

So I guess my point is: we're all paying the price of other people's mistakes; the only difference between me and this AIG douche is that I wasn't paid a million dollars a year before the shit hit the fan to mitigate the effects of those mistakes.

JJY: Fine - not disagreeing with you there - we're all suffering. I am, given my reduced compensation, a little more directly than you are, but clearly not as terribly as your dear wife. I have a few thoughts in response - I'm going to put them down in numeric form so i can easily separate them and minimize rambling.

1) How does his having gotten paid before justify not paying him now? I agree it puts him in a better position than you, but who's to say he didn't generate enough value for his company / clients to not deserve being paid what he got paid? Moreover, he's obviously more directly affected than you or your wife, because he was guaranteed a sum of money, which he didn't receive (or did receive and is being asked to return). While your wife obviously lost something, I don't think she was explicitly robbed, which he clearly was.

2) I don't understand why the first set of people you mention - those that took the too-easy loans, are not suffering from nearly the same amount of ire as the people working on Wall Street. Your thoughts?

3) How come the public was okay with the $175 Billion, or for the sake of easier, $175,000 Million outlay to AIG, but has raised such a (comparatively) ridiculous hue and cry about the $165 Million that employees of the firm were legally owed? Insert xkcd cartoon here.

4) How are people okay with a family making more than $250,000 a year, being taxed 90% of anything above that number? Not a single person, but a family. I'm not all that worried about the legislation for a few reasons: a) I'm not over the threshold (but I would be if I was married and my wife made anything comparable, so score another point for being single). b) If it does pass in the senate, it will be with many, many caveats that will render it essentially ineffectual. c) FIs will find a way around it - deferred comp, raised salaries/reduced bonuses, stock awards, etc.

But still, how are people okay with that number? $250,000 a year, for a family of 4 living in Manhattan, is really not that much money. Definitely not enough to be classified as executive compensation anyway. I mean, you know how expensive this city is, come the fck on.

Ahsan: We can talk about all of those issues, and frankly, I'm happy you put number 1 first up, because it's a convenient segue into something I wanted to talk about.

You write, "but who's to say he didn't generate enough value for this company/clients to not deserve being paid what he got paid"?

I want to discuss this point at some length, because (a) I don't think I understand it very well, and (b) what I do understand pisses the hell out of me. Bear with me as I talk about this, because you obviously know more about this than I do, and please correct me whenever and wherever you think it's necessary.

As I understand it, money is made by Wall Streeters by making more efficient use of their clients' money than would otherwise be the case. In other words, let's say I'm a gazillionaire and I'm stuffing it in my mattress at night. A trader or broker or whatever will make money by saying he could use that gazillion by sending it places where that money could be more useful than my mattress (say a new business), and that that money will be so much more useful there, that it will be worth more: a gazillion is now effectively worth 1.1 gazillion, and the Wall Streeter takes a cut of that additional 0.1 gazillion.

Here's the problem, as I see it, with that framework: that bump up in value is purely arbitary and in the eyes of the beholder. It's not real in any sense of the word. We don't know that my 1 gazillion is now worth 1.1 gazillion, we're estimating it. And the problem with those estimates, as we have seen, is that they can be incredibly wrong-headed.

So, in effect, the Wall Streeter is not paid for actually making money for his client. He is paid for the promise-cross-my-heart of making money for his client. And those promises, while the product of smart analysis most of the time, can collapse under their own weight.

The problem, for me, with Wall Street compensation -- which is so out of whack from everyone else's experiences -- is that people are given money for moving money. And it's not just that they're given money, it's that they're given boatloads of money. Money people like me in academia can only imagine.

JJY: Completely agree with everything you've said, including people not understanding them making so much - most of the time, I don't either. But...

Simplifying things, let us for the moment, ignore M&A and Financing and focus just on portfolio managers, or their sexier, unregulated avatar, hedge fund managers. Typically, in the good old days (of 2007), HF managers would charge a client 2 + 20, which means the charge is basically 2% of total assets, plus 20% of profits above a certain threshold (typically Libor, but it varies significantly). Point of reference: in my experience, old school Smith Barney type asset managers generally charge more nominal fees, like 1% of assets, while something like Vanguard (mutual funds) is even lower depending on the kind of fund.

So, that being said, depending on your risk profile and contingent on the amount of cash you have, you can invest in anything from a simple savings account in a bank, which would pay you a guaranteed 2% or so a year (not anymore - it's under 1% now I think), to a hedge fund, where the risk/reward payoff, and corresponding fees to the manager of your monies, is much higher. That is a decision made by you, which you will make in your best interests.

Here's my question then: If 100 people decided to invest 1 million dollars each with George Soros, knowing what they were getting into, and he made them 100K each, then what's wrong with him taking 20% of the profits, given that it was his stated fee structure from the very beginning? Is it a ridiculous sum of money? Of course. Does he deserve it? Why not?

Similarly, if an FI or Equities trader makes his company $100MM, why shouldn't he be entitled to 2% of that? In all honesty, I'm not sure what compensation ratios are for traders so I'm not going to guess, but you see my point, yes?

And I understand your frustration with implied value vs. realised value - but that's not always the case. Often money is actually made, e.g., with the buying and selling of stock, or even in the case of buying a company, tearing it down to it's individual assets, and then selling them for huge profit.

Basically, these people are getting paid for realizing the value of something better than anybody else does. Discovering a bargain, so to speak.

On the flip side, in the case of certain products, you're right in saying that the value is implied. In that case, if the transactions are long term, while they're definitely in the money today, they may very well not be tomorrow. Therefore, it's important to tie the compensation paid to the folks who made those transactions to the long term returns on said transactions, and not just the short term profits. Only, since firms had never been burned to this extent (LTCM notwithstanding...or maybe people just forget), it just didn't occur to them. It's entirely possible we'll see bonus escrow accounts in the future, where traders will have to return bonuses awarded them if decisions they made in Year 1 result in losses even in Year 3 or Year 5. I'm really interested in seeing how this situation unfolds.

I think it's often easy to impute the value-added by some of the people mentioned above, which is why it's easier to pay them. However, with a doctor, or a fireman, how do you quantify their value add? Do I think doctors deserve to make more than bankers - absolutely! But how do you determine what their services are worth?

Another point I've been wanting to make - people go on and on about how much bankers get paid and how it's ridiculous. What about entertainers? Does Kobe deserve $20mm a year for putting a ball through a hoop? Or worse still, Tim Thomas for not even succeeding in doing that? Or worst of all, reality TV stars, like Anna Nicole Smith and Jade Goody, may their souls rest in peace; why are their pay packets justified? And what about lawyers? Shouldn't our legal systems be simple enough that we be offered due process in court without having to dish out millions of dollars in the process?

On the other hand, why do teachers, one of the most important cogs of a progressive society, get paid so little? I think compensation structures are deeply flawed in society as a whole, and it's definitely not just Wall Street centric, which people often tend to forget.

Ahsan: I definitely agree with that last point. The W once told me that Paris Hilton gets paid $20,000 to show up at a party. The whys and hows of that somehow go over my head.

I want to make one last point about Wall Streeters' compensation and then move on. You don't necessarily have to reply to this, but I want to make the point nonetheless.

What really gets me is the complete obliviousness that they tend to show. Not a rule -- it is clear from your comments that you, for instance, know that by virtue of working in finance, you are paid high sums of money relative to the rest of the population -- but often enough. One thing that has struck me during Bonusgate is that these people think making many many hundreds of thousands of dollars a year and then being paid a bonus is normal. It's almost like: "what? Why're you looking at me like that?" when they have goddamn ketchup all over their face. They simply have no idea. And the self-serving nonsense about how they work harder and "deserve it" is utter crap. The guy who lays bricks on the CTA red line station at Belmont (which is my stop, and it's an above-ground stop) in -25 Celsius weather works his ass off, ok? The really smart high school teacher who's realistic ceiling for a salary is about 50-60k is extremely bright, ok? So let's drop this "we're smarter and we work fucking hard" crap. It's incredibly insulting.

One thing I think you might find interesting is academics' compensation. In many ways, academia -- that bastion of left-wingism -- is more market-oriented than Wall Street. Let me explain.

Broadly speaking, there are two types of academic jobs in the West: teaching jobs and research jobs. Almost always, teaching jobs are lower paying than research jobs, for reasons that will become clear.

A teaching job is one where you have a relatively heavy courseload -- around 5-6 courses a year, at least. It is usually at a smaller school, the type of place you and I went to college. And because you end up teaching so much, you get very little time to pursue your own research -- maybe just in the summer, if that.

A research job is one where you teach less -- maybe 3-4 courses a year at the most -- and are expected to produce top-notch scholarschip. These schools are usually bigger in terms of the student body, and the interaction between professor and undergrad is almost wholly replaced with interactions between TAs and undergrads. You get time to produce your own work.

Why does this distinction matter? It matters because scholars are almost wholly dependent on the quality and quantity of their published work to advance in their field -- even at teaching schools.

Let's say I get my PhD in 2012. In the fall of 2011, I would go on the market, and (hopefully) be asked to visit various schools to give a "job talk", where I basically talk about my dissertation and what contributions it makes to the field.

Let's say I impress the people at one of these job talks enough such that they give me a tenure-track job. A tenure-track job is one, as the name suggests, where I can potentially get tenure 5-6 years down the road IF I produce good work (and am a good professor). The key is the quality of my production: in those 5-6 years, I have to have produced at least one book and a number of published or publishable articles. And these works have to be well-received by the rest of the field.

So you see how market-oriented it is? You rise only if peers and competitors, after much deliberation, think you're worth it. Otherwise you sink.

Another point: salary raises. In most jobs, such as the one you have, raises are somewhat built into the compensation structure. So the assumption is that your salary will rise x% every year or every two years. Academia is very different. You can only really negotiate pay raises if there's competition for your services.

So, let's say I am a professor at ABC college and within the subfield of IR and Comparative Politics, I suddenly write a kickass book on ethnic conflict. Well, the good people at XYZ college see this, as do the people at PQR college, and both come in with offers. They want to make their Poli Sci departments more attractive, and they'd like someone in ethinc conflict to be there. So they email me, and tell me they'll give me tenure (if I don't already have it at ABC) and a raise.

The problem is, I don't want to leave ABC. For one, my wife likes it here. For another, XYZ is in a small town, and PQR is in the South. So I go to the dean and the chair of my department at ABC, and tell them: "look, I have other offers. This is what they're prepared to give me. Are you prepared to match?" And given I've just written a kickass book on ethnic conflict, they invariably are. So I get a raise, and tenure, and a new office.

So in effect, academia is one of the most market-oriented professions out there. It doesn't matter what you think your skills are. It matters what everyone else (i.e. the market) thinks your skills are. And you only get raises and job security if your market value rises, and never otherwise.

JJY: This will be a very short reply: I think people at a more senior level in investment banks, consulting firms, etc, do exactly what you describe (only the pay may be structured slightly differently - guaranteed bonus instead of a salary raise). The annual raise etc, is much more prevalent at the analyst / early associate stage, when you're just one of many in a "program". Bonuses are also standard at that level, although tiered, so better employees are still compensated accordingly, but definitely not according to scale, i.e., if as an investment banking first year analyst, you really suck - your bonus will be $60K, while if I was the star of my program, I wouldn't make more than $80K. Is the $60K too high? Absolutely. Is the $80K unjustified? I'm not as sure...

And I have a slight issue with your "they think they deserve it because they work sooo hard." That's not it all - the truly obnoxious ones believe that they're actually underpaid because of the absolutely immense VALUE they add to society. They really do. But most of them (us?) don't. We understand that we're paid higher than the average bear, but at the same time, the pay is what drives people to banking in the first place. It's almost a bribe to give up your real dreams and aspirations. For some, anyway. Others just enjoy it because it allows them to be the tools they've always yearned to be. Bottles and models, baby!

Anyway, let's move on to the remaining points from my email at 4:12PM - or, to be more exact, your thoughts on those points.

On a different note, I really enjoyed your post on informal sports btw. It's something we've obviously known, internalized, and participated in for ages, but it was nice to see it in writing. and good writing, at that.

Ahsan: Alright. Your second point is why is there no ire directed at people who took out too-easy loans to buy houses whose potentially increased value they used as a credit card to buy flat screen plasmas when they made 40k a year? Is that a fair characterization of that point?

My best guess is that those people have suffered enough: they've lost their homes and their livelihoods and can no longer afford to send their kids to college, if they ever could in the first place. The difference between that, and Wall Streeters still living it up on company escapes to resorts and getting million dollar bonuses, is obvious and stark.

But I agree that the culture of excess and easy credit and not saving for a rainy day have not received enough attention.

JJY: Isn't much further one can go with this. Fair enough is all I have to say - our exchanges have been disappointingly lacking in argument. It's funny how closely aligned our views are, but we still seem to be on two sides of a dividing line...albeit within touching distance of each other.

Wait, does that sound weird? You know, I bet that if I had never met Farooq, that thought wouldn't even have occurred to me.

Ahsan: Your third point was on the bonuses, and why such a hue and cry was raised over 0.1% of the federal bailout to AIG. Again, I think there's a very easy and compelling explanation: one was framed as serving the greater common good (the bailout) and the other (the bonuses) was framed as excess and greed of people whose excess and greed in large part is held as one of the major reasons for this crisis

JJY: But goshdarnit that just ain't right.

Ahsan: Are you smoking a joint at work right now? The quality and length of your responses has dropped off considerably.

JJY: Hahaha. Just left work. Let's continue this tomorrow. Didn't really have much to add, is all.

It just feels like a lynching you know...its the only reason I'm defending this largely douchy selection of folk. So what if they're rich - its sill not fair.

Ahsan: [The next day] I'm going to sidestep your 90%-bonus-tax point because we've been talking about these issues quite a bit and it's already been sort of covered. I want to switch gears for a second, and ask you about politics.

Now, it's a well-known fact that rich people vote Republican. It is also a well-known fact that big cities vote Democrat. How is that tension resolved on Wall Street? Is it a fair assessment when I say younger people that you know on Wall Street (say, younger than 35) voted for Obama and people in more senior positions voted for McCain?

JJY: Without generalising too much, that seems fairly accurate. I think Obama made it really hard for rich people to vote for him. Young people, primarily for the following two (fairly obvious) reasons, still voted for him: 1) they're not as rich...yet & 2) they still have a few dregs of idealism left that haven't yet been entirely wiped out by the cynicism of age/working in finance.

However, while I know zero senior people who voted for Obama, I do know a few young people who voted for McCain. Perhaps they're more forward-looking? And I'd move the definition of "younger" from 35 to around 28 or 30.

Ahsan: Another reason to hate Wall Street.

What do you think of Obama and his team's efforts to get out of this crisis?

JJY: I'm not going to let your negativity get me down. I'm a lifer, baby!

But that aside, I did want to share one of my favorite aspects of Wall Street with you. So, pretty much every group, in every bank has an annual "Volunteer Day." This is where we go out and do nice things for the not-as-fortunate folk in the community around us, after which, we all hit up a dive bar and bask in the glow of our feel-goodness, play beer pong, and in general, feel like men (and women) of the people. The activities themselves are more often than not, fairly useless, e.g., painting murals on walls of elementary/middle schools, planting trees and well, plants, in the already well-maintained park at Washington Square, and I should have had one more example but last year's was sadly cancelled because the person who organizes these things just had too much real work to do. That may not sound so bad, and even though we're not helping all that much, at least we're helping, right? But here's the kicker - we pay to do these things. Citi actually pays organizations to let us plant plants and paint murals. How about we just give the money to a charity organization, and stay in and do the work we're paid to do. Stupid "managing public perception."

As for Obama's efforts - to be honest, I'm not sure I have an opinion. I mean, I obviously think the 90% tax is ludicrous, but I don't know if I'm qualified to make judgments on the amounts/nature of the bailouts and to what extent they're going to alleviate the current situation. I'm just trying to understand it as we go along. That being said, what's your take?

Oh, one other point I wanted to make - I think it's really idiotic that the media takes comparatively small items and makes a huge deal out of them, sometimes resulting in an even stupider outcome than the original. Take the Citi corporate jet fiasco, for example. Now that was something agreed to a couple of years ago, and while it's obviously unfortunate timing, reneging on the order and extending the lease of the current jet/paying for it's maintenance, will actually end up costing Citi more than it would have if the firm had just gotten the new jet. I know it's an easy target, and serves as a great avenue for directing public ire, but shouldn't the media be held to some sort of standard to promote rational behavior?

Ahsan: Obama is not responsible for the 90% tax, Congress is. In fact, Obama has expressed reservations about that measure, though he did exhort Geithner to use any legal means possible to get the AIG bonuses back.

It's hard to say anything meaningful about Obama's plan(s) to mend the economy, only because these are highly technical issues on which very few people have expertise. I do my best by reading a number of economists' blogs, from across the ideological spectrum (read both Krugman and Mankiw, for instance) and yet I still find myself fumbling in the dark on many of these issues.

What I would say is that, at least in this point in his presidency, I trust Obama to hear from all sides on an issue and give every idea a fair hearing. Unlike his predecessor, he is an empiricist, not an ideologue. He's not going to fudge the intelligence on this, so to speak.

I would also say I wholeheartedly support Obama's focus on energy and healthcare. Many seem to suggest (the David Brooks of the world, for instance) that the Obama team is biting off more than it can chew, and should concentrate only on the crisis. I'm with Rahm Emanuel on this point: you should never let a crisis go to waste. If now is the only time that Obama is going to be able to get serious and much-needed reform on America's healthcare system (which is truly an abomination for a rich country), and refocus attention on the relationship between the environment and sustainable growth, then so be it.

In a few months, almost irrespective of what happens, Obama's popularity will have declined, and he would find it harder to get these big-item things on the agenda. This is the mistake Clinton made in his first term: waiting. When you wait, you lose. Now's the time.

To go to your point on the media, completely agree. But it's hard for the media to promote rationality when they themselves are so irrational. I instantly lose respect for a person if I find out they watch news or news shows on TV (Jon Stewart doesn't count). If you're getting your information and opinion from that lot, you're in trouble. Newspapers and blogs are the way to go.

Of course, newspapers are dying, so there's that problem.

JJY: Speaking of responsible journalism, especially the print kind, I received an offer from the New Yorker yesterday where I could get a year's subscription for $.40 an issue. Considering the fact that the New Yorker is my favorite print publication, I should have been delighted, but instead, I just felt sad; the kind of sad one feels when Free Willy is trapped in the net with nowhere to go, or when ol' Sidney pops off to do his "far, far better thing" than he has ever done, etc.

As for the "waiting" strategy - would it be presumptuous, and more importantly, unwise for a president to adopt an 8-year strategy/agenda as opposed to a 4 year one? This isn't directed at Obama because, quite frankly, he's landed himself smack dab in the middle of arguably America's greatest economic crisis, and I think he's perfectly justified in using the crisis to drive long-overdue reform on healthcare and the environment.

Diverting from our main topic for a quick second, I wanted to get your thoughts on the swamp that is America's healthcare system. Why are healthcare costs in the States so ridiculously high? Is it:

a) the for-profit driven insurance companies?

b) a resulting overly complex/expensive administrative system?

c) pharma companies charging ridiculous amounts for prescription drugs?

d) doctors having to pay absurd insurance rates to keep ambulance chasing lawyers at bay?

e) all of the above and then some?

Healthcare in India, while comparatively inferior, is so ridiculously cheap, that there is still a huge gulf between price per unit of quality medical service. For example, my family dentist in Bom charges me nothing for check-ups because he's my family dentist. But even if he wasn't, I think his charges are approximately ~40 USD. I messed up my insurance when I went to a dentist in New York, and I was charge ~$300 for a regular cleaning. Another, even more ludicrous example - I got the same X-Ray with the same machine in Bom and New York, and the respective costs were $15 vs. $105. Even after adjusting for purchasing power, and perhaps a more expensive x-ray technician/nurse, I don't think the two costs are even close to comparable. Wtf?

Also, to address most of the points in you make in your email, yes, Obama rocks. He's a fair, rational, well spoken, and incredibly intelligent individual who can be relied upon to listen to any and all sides of an issue before making a decision. Even if it's 3am when his phone goes off.

Lastly - if you had to pick between spending a week on a deserted island with either Obama, Jon Stewart, Michael Jordan, or any Victoria's Secret model, whom would you choose?

Ahsan: On the healthcare question, I think it's a mix of (a) and (b); the other two are logical implications of the first two points. The fact of the matter is that the U.S. spends significantly more per capita on healthcare for decidedly worse outcomes (shorter life expectancy, greater infant mortality etc etc) than other Western countries. There are close to 50 million people without any health insurance at all, and more tens of millions who are underinsured (i.e. those who cannot afford to have anything seriously bad happen to them because the truly bad stuff is not covered). For the richest country in the world, that is a goddamn joke, and a sick one at that.

But even your points (a) and (b) are logical implications of a grander point: the fact that healthcare in America is fully privatized (except for Medicare and the emergency room, but those are minor exceptions). One hopes Obama corrects this imbalance before his four or eight years are up.

Your dentists stories are crazy. Everyone has a crazy healthcare story in this country. That should tell the leaders of this country something.

On the journalism point, it's scary how good the New Yorker is. There is no better reporting or writing done anywhere else. For breadth of coverage, the Economist is very good too. The NYT Sunday Magazine is also good, if inconsistent.

Time and Newsweek suck balls. Those two publications, along with USA Today and the Wall Street Journal (right wing trash) need to be dispensed with.

As for your Obama vs. Stewart vs. Jordan vs. VS model question, I have a clarification question. Are we assuming I'm still married in this scenario?

JJY: Haha, I'm surprised that it even came to that, but I'll play along. No, you're not.

Ahsan: Then the VS model (Alessandra Ambrosio), no question. The difference between watching the Daily Show on the one hand versus talking crap with Stewart for a week on the other is MUCH smaller than the difference between, uh, perusing a Victoria's Secret catalog and having my way with dear Alessandra for a solid week. The Jordan option is kind of stupid, because I really would have nothing to say to him, and him me, because I'm much more intelligent than he is, and we have nothing in common. The Obama option is tempting to be sure, but not as tempting as this.

You? (You can change Jordan for Tendulkar or Dravid in your case, or even Fabregas).

JJY: See, here's the thing I hate about answering these deserted island questions: what on earth makes you think Alessandra will let you have your way with her? Yes, you'll have a week alone with her, so after a few days she may sleep with you out of desperation alone, but the odds of even that aren't all that high. Smoking with either Obama or Stewart on the other hand, is a guaranteed good time.

Anyway, if I had to set up my ideal desert island scenario, the choices would probably be Obama, Stewart, one of Bergkamp/Henry/Fabregas, and one of Aniston/Portman/Elsa Benitez. (Note: I've left Stockton off this list because I think he'd be incredibly boring. Also, I didn't think it would be pair to pick the entire Indian political population...as much as I would have loved to have stood there and shot every one I deemed not worthy of political office).As far as the soccer players go, I'd pick Fabregas over Henry and Bergkamp, and then spend the whole week trying to fervently convince him to spend the rest of his career at Arsenal. With regards to the gorgeous women, I'd probably go with Portman, simply because she's intelligent as well, and I'd probably have the best shot of wooing her with my razor sharp wit, brilliant sense of humor, effusive charm, and boyish good looks. Not to mention the whole being hung like a horse thing, but that would impress the other two as well, so it's not really relevant to the point I'm trying to make. Just thought I'd throw it out there...

Having narrowed the finalists down, I'd have to go with Portman. I think I could marry that girl.

Also, I think that's a fantastic note/image on which to end what has been an immensely entertaining series of exchanges. I look forward to the paradoxical combination of intelligent/ludicrously over the top comments that are sure to follow.

As always, it has been a pleasure.

Ahsan: Dude, are you fucking kidding me? OF COURSE she'd sleep with me. I'm not even going to bother arguing this point. If that crater-face Seal can get Heidi Klum to let him bang her for the rest of their lives, I think I have a pretty good shot with Alessandra.

And yes, it's been fun. You might even get a regular reader or two out of the entire exercise.
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You can read JJY's blog here.

Poll Post

You can comment on the poll here, if you so desire.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

An Ode to Bhuttoness: by Wajid Shamsul Hasan

Readers on our blog have occasionally commented that our 'western-educated, secular-liberal-elite, honda-driving, bubblegum-Pakistani' background bars us from opinining on actual social issues, or on Pakistani values. The flip side of that argument is that by merit of our skewed orientation, we should be utter experts at discerning what constitutes effective diplomacy in the West. Given that its apparently my forte', I guess it would be fair to discuss Wajid Shamsul Hasan, Pakistan High Commissioner to the UK.
Recently, he wrote a 1596 word article, about I don’t know what. I do know that its a pompous, right-click-thesaurus bulk of shit. Shout out to Ali Khan for recommending it.

The article has 2 main themes:

1) March is Shamsul Hasans favourite month for a variety of inane reasons
2) The Bhuttos and now the Zardaris are God’s ordained vice-regents on this earth

Given that everyone is smarter than me and thefore unlikley to read the entire thing, here are 10 highlighted excerpts, which I will blog as I read through the article. I'll award points to each highlight for originality, veracity, sentiment and insight (or lack thereof) and tally at the end.

Highlight 1: (his opening sentence)

"London: March is a landmark month for Pakistan. Notwithstanding the Shakespearean ides of March, it became a historical land mark for us as a nation when under the leadership of Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah Muslim representatives of from all over the sub-continent decided to seek, strive and achieve a separate homeland."

Score:

- 10 Points for the dumb reference to the Ides of March to sound cool
- 5 Points for saying 'land mark' twice within the space of two sentences.
+10 points for the shout out to Jinnah (I know, I’m a sucker.)

Highlight 2:

"The road to democratic goal post was strewn with the noblest blood of martyred Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto. She had ended her self-exile and was forewarned that blood hounds were waiting to be unleashed upon her by those who had opposed her populist politics of empowerment of the people and who wanted her out of their way to devour and scavenge whatever was left of Pakistan."

Incidentally, the road to the goal post of crap is strewn with the complete tripe written in this article. If after the last couple of weeks you had to pick a single incumbent politician who has attempted to oppose populist politics of empowerment and who has a record of devouring and scavenging what was left of Pakistan, it would be Zardari.

Score :
-30 points for disingenuousness
-5 points for the inane meandering about blood hounds.

Highlight 3

“we can only look forward to a national turn-around if our leadership adopts singularity of purpose and devotes whole-heartedly to solving the excruciating problems faced by the common people and mobilises the nation to fight terrorism and extremism to save the country from being taken over by barbarians who are on the rampage to destroy Mr Jinnah's Pakistan and convert it into a theocratic state."

Score:
+5 points for the populist lip service.
–15 points for the phrases “singularity of purpose” “excruciating problems” and “barbarians who are on the rampage”
+1 point for the Jinnah reference (I know its less than last time, but marginal utility bro)

Highlight 4:

“The nation needs to be warned that these warring pagans are after our territory and want to destroy whatever progress we have achieved. They are in fact-hirelings of our enemies-out there to destabilize Pakistan so that there is excuse good enough for them for take over of our vital national assets.”

Score:
Your mum was a hireling of our enemies. -300 points for being really annoying.

Highlight 5

"The masses also need to distinguish between those leaders who are committed to the preservation of the federation for which Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and martyred Benazir Bhutto laid down their lives and those who do not get tired of pledging their lives for the country but only seek their survival through parochial slogans as were heard in 1988 when Benazir Bhutto was denied landslide victory in Punjab by General Hameed Gul who had created IJI and clobbered a gang of anti-PPP leaders."

I'd venture that this is the most ridiculous paragraph ever written by a High Commissioner in the history of Pakistan (I say paragraph, but its actually an 85 word sentence that begins with the words “the Masses”.)

Score:
+300 points for distinguishing yourself. High five high commissioner!

Highlight 6:

"Much similar slogans invoking Punjabi chauvinism were raised recently during the judicial crisis. In this context what the nation needs to be cautious about is that the President who is the symbol of federal unity-ever since he ushered in an era of reconciliation and politics of consensus as part of Benazir Bhutto legacy-has been singled out as a target for character-assassination through a most volatile media blitzkrieg. Those hidden hands pulling the media strings to malign democracy and persistently coaxing men on horseback to intervene-are not well-wishers of Pakistan. They are quislings."

Ok I understand now. This fellow lives in the mystical world of Wajid Shamsul Hasan.

According to Bhutto-Ditta Wajid Shamsul Hasan, he often spends the month of March riding a spotted Namibian mare on a giant aircraft carrier made of kheer and dead quislings. He floats hundreds of kilometres above the heavens, on the outer edges of the holy abode reserved exclusively for assassinated PPP leaders. Liaquat Ali Khan, Hayat Sherpao and Murtaza Bhutto are dumb and are not worthy of being remembered in the holy month of March.

Score:
-10 points for not elaborating how Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto threw the one Shamsul Hasan into the fires of Mount Doom.

Highlight 7:

"Pained by what is happening in and around Pakistan and being fed up sitting on the fence as a silent witness to the national failure to rise to the occasion, I decided to write about another March event that played a historic role in the shaping of Pakistani politics. It was a coincidence that on March 23,1929 to Isphanis of Karachi was born a daughter-Nusrat Khanum. She was chosen by destiny to be the great woman behind two great leaders of our time-Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto martyred Benazir Bhutto. "

Score:
-5 Points for your awful decision to not stay a silent witness.
- 5 Points for compounding our national failures with your atrocious articles.
-10 Points for the bald attempt to link your article with the birth of Benazir's mother.
-1 Point for thinking that Nusrat Khanum was destined to bear a leader of Pakistan, just because she was born on the date of the Lahore resolution.

[On this highlight, I had originally awarded Mr Shamsul Hasan -100 points for something dumb that he actually hadn't written. Apologies]

Highlight 8: (By this point, Shamsul Hasan is waxing lyrical about Nusrat Bhutto)

"Now 80 when I saw her last her eyes were overly blank but there was an aura of
melancholy blanketing her beautiful mien that continues to retain its noble
grace in its fragility.”

What. A. Line.

Score:
+300 points. No questions asked. Just take it and go.

Highlight 9:

“Her [i.e. Her Majesty Nusrat Bhutto] ancestry leading to the legendary Salahuddin Ayubi” – I will spare you this paragraph because it just rambles on profusely and ends predictably with – “brave daughter Benazir Bhutto by her side”.

Score:
0.

Highlight 10:

"In 1947-48 as a young member of the Women's National Guard she carried out personally huge amount of relief operations to provide shelter and succour to the millions of the uprooted refugees at a time when Pakistan had no resources. At that hour of crisis, she stood tall among the tallest of ladies that had plunged themselves in one of the biggest relief operations ever undertaken. "

Score:

+5 points for the part about ‘standing tall amongst the tallest of ladies’, which made me laugh.

Highlight 11: (Forgive me. I know I promised 10, but they just keep coming)

“[Nusrats] marriage to ZAB was also a great turning point in his life. Though himself a highly qualified and richly endowed scion of an illustrious parentage and heritage, stability at home provided to him by Begum Sahiba, enabled him to harness his energies in the service of the nation to the best of his abilities. As the youngest minister he was seen as a great man in the making and the woman behind him was Nusrat Bhutto.”

Dude, I know you don’t want to bite the dick that feeds you. But seriously. This shit goes way beyond sycophantic fiction (Sycofantasia?). Please STOP.

Score:
-200 points for the unabashed fellatio

Highlight 12:

"When he became minister her responsibilities multiplied--as a wife who had to accompany her husband on foreign tours, play perfect hostess to her husband's dignitary guests, look after four growing children whose high quality education was her responsibility and then she had tremendous social responsibilities besides her commitment for the empowerment of women and less privileged."

Score:
- 800 points for not stopping.

Highlight 13:
“The true strength and greatness of her character--manifested itself-“ blah blah blah blah I write things blah blah blah blah P is the best letter of the Alphabet blah blah blah blah blah I Like Being High Commissioner blah blah blah – “Benazir Bhutto”.
Minus 1 point for every additional word written after "true strength" because frankly marking your gas has gotten boring. According to my new per-word marking scheme, that means a further –506 points.

Highlight 14:

“Politics is a game of uncertainty especially when egomaniacs are on the loose."

Yes. Not only a game, but a game of uncertainty. All the other games in the world, are of course based on certainty.
And if there are political problems in Pakistan borne of large egos, please stop writing about them. Unless of course it is to make some heartfelt admission about your embarrasing public affection for your boss, his wife, his wifes mother, his wifes mothers father's father (to the power of ten - i.e. Saladin Ayyubi), their children, and anyone else within political sucking up distance.

Score:
I’ll leave this one for the comments section.

Final Score:
Mr Shamsul Hasan's final score (Subject to the commenter’s Marks for Highlight 14) is negative Seven Hundred and Seventy Five Points. Nice.

The Culture Of Informal Sports

I was thinking of writing a post on this topic for a long time, and this column by Stanley Fish finally persuaded me to stop being lazy.

For as long as I remember, I have played sports for fun and competition. I think I started playing cricket at about age 5 -- my eldest brother, then 13, taught me the forward defensive shot and the straight drive -- and basketball at about age 7 or 8 (not coincidentally, fellow by the name of Michael was about 28 years old then, and doing some pretty ridiculous things). Between the ages of 10 and 19, I would say I played some sport for some part of the day about four or five times a week. I stopped playing sports in college mainly because I was too nerdy and refused to leave my room for anything other than the library, but every now and then we would get a cricket game going amongst all the South Asians at our tiny college. Only when I got to grad school did I start playing regularly again -- basketball two or three times a week.

Leaving aside how much fun it was and is, I want to talk about the culture that pervades informal sports. My only experiences have been with pickup basketball and tape-tennis cricket, but I'm sure this applies to many other people's experiences with many other sports.
_____________________________________________________________________________________

Here's the most interesting passage from Fish's column:
Why? Why continue to do something I wasn’t any good at nine times out of ten? Well for one thing basketball players are by and large generous. (There are exceptions.) If you’re not very skilled, if you’re old and slow, they will make a place for you in the game. In his recent book “Give and Go: Basketball as a Cultural Practice,” Thomas McLaughlin speaks of the ethical practices that emerge in the course of a game even though no rules have imposed them: “Every time one of the players in our game says to a weak player as he is taking an open shot that he will likely miss ‘Good shot,’ he is weaving the ethical fabric of the game.”

I have often been the beneficiary of that ethical fabric, even when those weaving me into it are perfect strangers. For one of the great things about being a basketball player (or pretending to be one) is that no court is closed to you which is why I always have a basketball in the trunk of my car. You can just show up wherever there is a hoop and a game and you will be included. (This holds also in foreign countries where there may be a language barrier, but never a basketball barrier.)



That's the most important and most amazing thing about informal sports: everyone gets a chance. I speak from experience: when I was in Pakistan, I was always one of the three best players on the basketball court; in Chicago, I am always one of three worst. In cricket, depending on the setting and the people there, I could be anywhere from the best player there to just barely in the upper quartile (top 25%). The point is, I've experienced informal sports from a variety of different perspectives, and the result is always the same: bad players are still allowed to play, still given the ball or bat ahead of someone who might deserve it; everyone is made to feel welcome and no one is shunned on the basis of their ability (the bigness of their mouths might be another matter entirely).

It really is unbelievable when you think about it. Economists from places like the University of Chicago would tell you that human beings act almost always as rational agents in their own self-interest, and most people's self-interest is to win. And yet, very rarely do teams and players act completely like they want to win. Note, I'm not saying people don't want to win. I'm saying they sometimes act in ways that makes their winning less likely.

In cricket, for instance, it is a time-honored trait that a player has to be given either at least one over (for Westerners, read: be allowed to bowl, which is cricket's equivalent to pitching in baseball) or bat in the top three or four. I've played a tape-tennis game of cricket about 4 gazillion times in my life. Almost every time, the team batting second makes its decisions on the batting order according to the following criteria: (a) how big a score are we chasing? and (b) who didn't get a chance to bowl?

Though these options are often in opposition to each other -- for the simple fact that if a player didn't get to bowl, it probably means he sucks, which probably would get in the way of successfully chasing the first team's score -- they are almost always handled pretty adroitly by whoever is in charge of selecting the batting order. Usually you'll send a really good player with the sucky guy (for Westerners: in cricket, two players bat at any one time, in effect in rotation), hope the sucky guy does something productive or gets out quickly, and take your chances by interspersing sucky guys with talented guys in the order.

In basketball, it's very similar. If a sucky guy is open, everyone will encourage him to shoot, even if the sucky guy's open shot is less likely to go in than the good player's contested shot. Good defensive plays (which rely less on skill and more on effort) are always applauded. And I've never been in a game -- ever -- where someone is made fun of for their lack of ability (unless it's between friends, in which case all bets are off).

Again, think about how weird that is. In every other walk of life, be it in an office building or a school or even a home, people with less skill are usually marginalized for (and by) people with more skill. And yet in sports, where winning and losing is a very discrete and binary outcome (you can't "sort of" win the way you can "sort of" be friends with someone or "sort of" be good at your job), where dog-eat-dog Darwinian logic should be in full play, where every minute should be a heroic battle for establishing one's manhood, we actually see something very different: empathy and the sense of unity. And the crazy thing is, it is often expressed by people who don't know each other at all -- by people who have almost nothing in common except a passion for the sport.

At the U of C gym where I play pickup basketball, for instance, there are white guys and black guys and East Asian guys and Hispanic guys and, um, one South Asian guy (guess who?). There are undergrads and grad students and people who work at the U of C hospital and people who simply live in the neighborhood here in the South Side of Chicago. There are rich guys and middle-class guys and poor guys. Occasionally, there's a girl too. And unlike Cheers, very few people know everyone else's name. They just shoot for teams, ones and twos to 11, winner stays, and repeat. It's a pretty simple formula, really.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

I know this is going to make me sound like one of those old dudes who hates that his time has passed, but I really can't believe kids these days. The amount of time they spend indoors on their goddamn Xboxs and PS3s and Nintendos and Civilization and Prince of Persia and whatnot is really beyond me.

Look, I understand there are a lot of virtues in playing sports that are replicated in video games: the idea of wasted effort, the idea of losing despite trying your hardest and having to accept it, the idea of camaraderie and team spirit, and the idea of using past failures to overcome future obstacles, to name just a few. But no one is going to convince me it's the same experience, and one of the main reasons is the stuff I've talked about in this post: the delicate balance between altruism and winning that is commonly struck in informal sports. If anyone under the age of 20 is reading this, please stop and get your ass out of the house and throw around a goddamn ball with someone your age. Trust me, it'll be fun.

Even if you suck.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Pakistani TV Producers / Directors / Hosts Are Idiots

Daniyal Raheel, the host of Driven - a car show which airs on the Pakistani channel Style 360, reviews a fancy American car from 1964. He's quite an insightful man so let's hear what he had to say about the car's interior:

"the interior of the car is pretty dark, maybe could've done with some wood finishing, looks a bit dangerous. I don't know if I can say this on TV, this interior makes me feel like a nigger."

Aired 21:30 PST, 23-03-09.

Sunday, March 22, 2009

Fun Fact Of The Day

In La Liga this year, only one team has scored more goals than the combination of Messi, Eto'o and Henry. That team is Real, with 66. Barca's three up front have 59. No other team has more than 56.

The 6-0 demoilition of Malaga today was an absolute joy to watch, even if it was on a grainy-ass web feed. Malaga are not a joke; promoted this year, they have been challenging for a Champions League spot for months now. But they were simply blown away by the wave-after-wave form of attack Barca have mastered this year. At their best, they simply give you no room or time to breathe. And honestly, 6-0 is a flattering scoreline for Malaga -- it could easily have been 8 or 9. Easily.

Also, FYI, you definitely want to Youtube "Messi Malaga" some time tomorrow.

UPDATE: See how nice I am? I even do your Youtubing for you:




But no, really, Ronaldo is the best player in the world.

Some Plugs

Since I don't feel like putting any of my own thoughts today, I thought I would direct you to other people's production.

Regular reader Wasay has started the "Maila Times" with a friend of his at college. It's modeled on The Onion, except it focuses on Pakistan. The problem, of course, is that reality in Pakistan is ridiculous enough without satire. Despite these obstacles, they are bravely soldiering on. Check it out.

We got an email from the people over at the Brave New Foundation, telling us about their new documentary "Rethink Afghanistan" (it's the same crew responsible for "Outfoxed"). It's a two part documentary and the second part focuses in large part on Pakistan. Here's the trailer:



You can watch the entire piece on their website, as well as sign a petition calling for more congressional oversight hearings on the U.S.'s war in Afghanistan. Check it out.

A friend of mine from high school wrote this story for NYU's Street Level magazine, which runs the best pieces from undergrad journalism students. The story is about Pakistani women running small businesses in Brooklyn. Of course, Anam has now moved on to bigger and better things: writing about fashion, entertainment and the rich and elite of New York -- which, frankly speaking, is all I care about in the world.

There were a couple of other plugs I had to make but Dodgeball is on TV so I'm going now. Happy weekend.

UPDATE: One of the other things I wanted to mention is this blog devoted to FC Barcelona, for the Barca fans out there. Pretty comprehensive (previews and reviews for all the games, plus some good if biased comments) so check it out.

ANOTHER UPDATE: The last thing I wanted to mention was Fuck My Life. I think most people already know about this, but for those who don't, let me tell you: it's the best time-waster in the world. I challenge you to spend less than half an hour on it the first time you visit. It's bloody hilarious.

Friday, March 20, 2009

Obama Wishes Iranians Happy Nowruz, Quotes Saadi, Gives Liberals Everywhere Massive Hard-On

Holy cultural sensitivity, Batman! In the midst of the greatest economic crisis in almost 100 years, and a massive and near-unprecedented overhaul of domestic priorities, Barack Obama has decided to wish Iranians a Happy New (Iranian) Year. In his message, he managed to quote an ancient Persian poet. He also posted transcripts of his remarks in English and Persian at (I kid you not) www.whitehouse.gov/Nowruz. No, seriously.



The IR interpretation of this is pretty simple: Obama is a defensive realist, conceives of Iran as a security-seeking and not a greedy state, and is attempting to reassure them in an attempt to strike a Pareto efficient bargain on the nukes question. The only problem with this plan, I think, is that Iranian acquisition of nukes is fueled -- no pun intended -- more by Israel than by the U.S. [to be clear, this is just my personal opinion and in no way represents a consensus in the security/IR worlds].

I also think the timing of this is not coincidental in the sense that he is probably seeking to influence the Iranian election this year by trying to secure a more moderate leadership. Though the extent of his influence on that issue is also questionable, at least for me.

But man, no one can say that dude isn't trying.

Champions League Draw

Villarreal v Arsenal (YES!!!)
Manchester United v Porto
Liverpool v Chelsea (Not again.)
Barcelona v Bayern Munich (The one to watch.)

(Villarreal or Arsenal face Man U or Porto in the Semifinal)

Lost Season Five: Episode 9

Perhaps it was the anticipation caused by the two-week break but I really enjoyed Lost this week. 'Namaste' did not break any new structural ground and there were no gasp-worthy twists but even the weaker actors like Matthew Fox and Evangeline Lilly were in great form while Sawyer's new-found authority and the calmness that accompanies it has allowed Josh Holloway to show off his acting range. And the tantalizing glimpses of Dharma life from the first four seasons have now been fully fleshed out. Is it any surprise that the Hostiles were able to gas these guys so easily; they're really nothing more than a bunch of hippies with a knack for science singing songs in their commune.

- The most pressing question that needs to be answered is why Sun is the only member of the Oceanic Six to be stuck in a different timeline. My guess is that John Locke, as the leader of The Others (or at least the figurehead leader), did not want Sun to come back to the island because of Jin's request, and so she is separated from the rest of the gang.

- The scene between Sayid and young Ben sets up all sorts of possibilities. Most likely, Sayid will unsuccessfully (remember, Daniel said the future can't be changed) try to kill young Ben to exact revenge for whatever betrayal Ben perpetrated back when they were off the island. But it is also possible that Ben is already leaning towards The Others and Sayid will have to come an alliance of convenience with them to escape from his holding cell.

- A sharp-eyed commentator on one of the forums posted a screenshot of the scene between Sun and Christian Shepherd. There is another woman hovering in the background. The ghostly apparation is probably Claire but could also be the newly-departed Charlotte.

- Seeing Lapidus' co-pilot speared by a branch reminded me of the pilot when the pilot (no pun intended) was also brutally killed. The Island doesn't seem to like those who bring visitors.

- The reunion at the start of the episode was really quite touching. Reunions are something the show has always handled really well. Jin and Sawyer returning with the Tailies in season 2, Sawyer and Kate escaping The Others in season 3, Desmond and Penny and the Oceanic 6 and their families in season 4 and Jin returning from the dead in season 5 were all brilliant. For a show about a bunch of survivors stuck on an island, Lost really does have a lot of separations.

- While I want Sawyer to stick with Juliet and could really do without a protracted love triangle, or quadrilateral if you include Jack, I really loved the scene between Juliet and Kate. I wouldn't be surprised if Juliet deliberately left Kate out of the new recruits list just so she could show her who was in charge.

- Sawyer really asserted his leaderhsip in the scene with Jack and he seems to be far more successful in his new role then Jack and Locke ever were. He's managed to keep everyone alive and living comfortably in the Dharma compound. Will Jack be happy in his new subordinate role or is a power struggle, perhaps mirroring that between Dharma and The Others, in the offing?

- It was Ethan! And boy did Juliet recoil when Michelle Dreschller told her the baby's name.

- You really need good recall to catch everything on Lost. Radzinsky, the guy who found Sayid, had been last mentioned three years ago in season two. In Desmond's flashback, his hatch-mate Kelvin tells him that he was living down there with Razdinsky. Kelvin, by the way, was the dude in the US army who introduced Sayid to torture. So this means that not everyone in Dharma was killed during the Purge.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Resume of the Day

Via Ugly Doggy

If you can't read it, there is an enlarged image here.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Mid-Week Links

Even by Pakistani standards, the last has month has been quite intense politically. Let's forget about that for a moment and see what the rest of the world is up to.

A writer for the Atlantic Monthly describes a dining experience with Larry David. Apparently Larry David the person bears more than a passing resemblance to Larry David the character.

You've got to love the intellectual tenor of intra-Republican debate. John McCain's daughter Meghan criticized some right-wing personalities for their personal attacks on her father. Their reply, "Shut up, you fat bitch." (I paraphrase slightly). Meghan told them to "Kiss my fat ass."

Sometimes you can't help but laugh at another person's misfortune:

Hashmat Ali must have exhausted all options to persuade his father to get him married before reaching the Peshawar Press Club holding a banner Tuesday to publicly voice his grievance.

The banner carried an appeal by him in Urdu, complaining that his father Shahzad Gul despite being a wealthy man was refusing to arrange his marriage. “My younger brothers have got married even though they were jobless. I am the oldest and am employed but my father has yet to arrange me marriage,” read the appeal.

According to Hashmat Ali, he was a chowkidar at the girls’ hostel at the Lady Reading Hospital in Peshawar and was getting Rs5,000 monthly salary. The girls’ hostel apparently was the nursing hostel at the biggest public hospital in the NWFP. Imagine being a guard at a hostel full of young girls and still unable to find a wife.


A Cricinfo blogger makes a list of the worst bowlers in Test history. Anyone who followed cricket in the 90s will not be surprised to learn that Ian Salisbury (20 wickets at an average of 76.95) is the runaway victor.

What good could possibly come from placing a Christian fundamentalist and athiest pervert (I do not use the term perojatively) in the same room? Only the most hilarious interview you could hope to read.

Site recoomendation: Want to catch up on the latest celebrity gossip but feel like a loser for staring at pictures of Britney? Get updates on the Chris Brown/Rihanna situation and much more at What Would Tyler Durden Do? where the irony and snark will allow you to slum without losing your sense of superiority.

And finally, major props to the W (to borrow Ahsan's phrasing) for introducing me to Dr Horrible's Sing-Along Blog. In the scene embedded below, obnoxious super hero Captain Hammer explains the origins of his moniker to arch-nemesis Dr Horrible.





Nerdy Cartoon Of The Day

This is a little old, but I came across it on Greg Mankiw's blog and forgot to post it.

Poll Post

You can comment on the poll here, if you so desire.

A Note To New(ish) Readers

Over the last month or so, our readership has increased significantly. If I can speak for Bubs, AKS and NB, I would say that this is a very healthy development for our egos, as well as for the blog itself. It is always nice to have one's thoughts read, as well as have engaging and enterprising discussion follow in the comments section to our posts, whether they be utterly banal or controversial. Trust me when I say I appreciate every visit and visitor to our humble abode in cyberspace. Let's put it this way: two of my top six most-visited websites are Sitemeter links that monitor traffic (three of the others are email, and the sixth is the blog itself).

That said, I think it would be in order to make a couple of things clear about how we generally like to run things. We've always strayed away from formal and juridical rules and tended to rely on norms and self-regulation, so it is worth going over what we conceive those norms to be.

Comments and censorship

We don't have comment moderation and don't intend on starting any time soon. We expect harsh criticism of our ideas and our writing styles at all times. We do not appreciate, but can live with, criticism of who we are and where we come from.

However, there are a number of things that we will not stand, and if you engage in these activities, your comment will be deleted immediately. You cannot personally attack another commenter -- argue with them all you want, but any over-the-top insult (and we are the sole judges of what "over-the-top" means) and your comment gets deleted, even if it made a valid point. You cannot use ethnic slurs or other insults aimed at ascriptive identity markers (religion, nationality, linguistic group etc) against any of the contributors or commenters. Curse words are fully allowed -- indeed, life would be worthless without curse words -- but they should be used judiciously, and never against a fellow citizen of Rs.5land (i.e. you can call Nawaz a fat bastard, but you can't call AKS an insufferable dick...I think).

Remember, it takes us a second to delete a comment and you at least five minutes to write one. In other words, it's a lot easier for us to delete what you wrote than it is for you to write what you wrote. So why waste the effort with some nonsense?

We are bloggers, not journalists

If you would like to see every relevant story in the world covered here, you are in the wrong place. Even if something important is happening, odds are we won't talk about it unless we think we have something interesting to say. When Israel was bombing the crap out of Gaza, some readers complained that we didn't cover it. Well, I can't speak for the others, but I until there was actually something for me to say, I didn't say it -- and when there was something for me to say, I said it. Twice in one week in fact.

Similarly, there have been a couple of comments recently asking us to criticize Altaf Hussain because we criticize Nawaz Sharif and Asif Zardari. Frankly, this is silly. We don't measure our output by weighing scales: we're not going to balance compliments and criticism of various public figures to make you happy. If you want to hear a compliment or criticism of something you like or hate, I'm sure you can find it somewhere on the web.

There was also a comment recently that said we "hide" behind soccer and episodes of Lost from confronting reality. The commenter, I think, was trying to make the point that we should not advertise our escapist avenues. Again, this is silly. We are four people (for all intents and purposes, we're three; sorry NB) with diverse interests and hobbies. I hate to break this to you, but we are not always consumed by politics. We will publicly engage with other issues that are important or interesting to us, for whatever reason. If you don't like to read about soccer and Lost, you can always scroll down. No worries.

I guess the common thread running through this section is there really is no point getting on us about why we write something or why we don't write something. Get on us about what we write.

Don't be a silent reader!

I strongly believe that a blog's quality owes 50% to the contributors and 50% to the readers. I follow some blogs/columns on the web solely for the interesting comments that follow (any football column on The Guardian is a guaranteed afternoon down the drain because of all the funny and insightful and respectful comments that follow). So make yourselves heard.

By the way, I'm sure our longtime readers (Faraz, Nikhil, Asfand, Farooq, Rabia, Asad, Lindsey, Nabeel, Naqiya, Goc, Moss J etc), all of whom have very frail egos and serious self-esteem issues, can add more to these points. Guys, what are the norms that you think govern this site?

Monday, March 16, 2009

Nawaz Sharif, What Would Make Me Trust Him, And Costly Signals

With Pakistan in the midst of unmitigated political turmoil, I want to turn my attention to one of the central protagonists in this drama: Nawaz Sharif.

First, some background. Regular readers know that I consider Nawaz Sharif to be a blatant opportunist, a power-hungry hypocrite, a sharp political mind, and dangerously close to religious right-wing forces.

I find it troubling -- to say the least -- that the man whose supporters stormed the Supreme Court a dozen years ago to obviate a case being heard against him is now the so-called champion for the independence of the judiciary.

I find it bizarre that the same man who stuffed the bureaucracy, the courts, the police and the military with supporters; the same man who had journalists such as Najam Sethi kidnapped and beaten; the man who proclaimed himself Amir-ul-Momineen (Supreme Leader) and attempted to rush through a Sharia bill in an attempt to aggrandize yet more power is now the man who stands up for the rule of law and constitutional democracy.

I find it laughable that the man who took the first opportunity to flee the country rather than suffer in jail is now hailed -- primarily by supporters of his party -- has standing up the forces of dictatorship when in fact he did quite the opposite: cut, run, and jump back into the fray at an opportune moment.

Lastly, as a secular liberal, I find Nawaz Sharif's dalliances -- and that is putting it charitably -- with the religious right to be harbingers of an institutionalized religiosity enacted (or magnified) by the state and society, an outcome which I would prefer to avoid.

To sum up: the spectacle of Nawaz Sharif assuming the position he has in the discursive space in Pakistani politics is akin to George W. Bush returning to politics at some point in the future on the platform of being against torture, tax cuts, dumb wars, and religious conservatism. It is, to put it mildly, cause for cognitive dissonance.
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All this aside, I am not a partisan, but an empiricist. If someone can convince me with evidence that Nawaz Sharif really has changed -- that he is not in fact simply chasing power, but is truly fighting for principles to which we all would like to adhere to -- then more power to him, in all senses of the phrase. I have nothing against the Nawaz Sharif the person, nor do I have anything against the PML-N per se.

The problem that we as observers of politics face is simple: at first glance, there is simply no way of knowing which interpretation is correct. Given the evidence available, partisan supporters of Nawaz Sharif and the PML-N can claim that he truly has changed, and actually believes that 'I am again ready for reconciliation only for restoration of the deposed judges, supremacy of the judiciary, repeal of 17th amendment, charter of democracy and bright future of the masses and country. I am not demanding any portfolio but seeking safety of the country and its dwellers". On the other hand, those who tend to be more skeptical can dismiss these words as exactly that: all talk, covering up a deep desire to return to power at any cost.

How do we solve this quandary? In other words, what mechanism -- if any -- will allow us to tell for sure whether Nawaz Sharif is a reformer (as he says) or a power-hungry opportunist (as I say)?

Some elementary game theory proffers a potential solution.
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Before we go any further, let us consider two fairly different phenomena: courtship and college.

When talking about courtship, it might be useful to lay down some simplifying assumptions. Let us assume for the moment that there are two types of men in the world: assholes (who only want sex) and good guys (who are willing to commit). Let us further assume that women would like to go on dates only with good guys, and would like to reject the advances of assholes. Finally, let us assume that when a single woman meets a man, she is completely unaware which of the two categories the man she just met occupies. These assumptions are obviously not completely accurate, but they are reasonable enough for the exercise at hand.

The problem the woman faces in this situation is similar to the problem we face with Nawaz Sharif: not enough evidence to make a conclusive judgment. So if the man asks the woman out, how is she to respond? Should she say yes, or should she say no?

One thing that can help the woman decide is if the man uses "costly signals". If the man does something that is "costly" to him, this can help signal to the woman that he is committed. The important point is that whatever the cost is, it has to be high enough for the assholes to not want to do it, and for the good guys to want to do it. In game theoretic terms, the cost has to be high enough to lead to a separating equilibrium (as opposed to a pooling equilibrium). So what the woman is basically looking for is for the man to do something that a good guy would surely have no problem doing, but which would be beyond an asshole's capabilities.

Are there examples of such actions? Sure. Consider the act of buying flowers, and walking over to the woman's house and giving them to her personally. This act is costly, in terms of money (the price of the flowers), time (going to the florist, and then the woman's apartment), and energy (all that walking). It is so costly, in fact, that assholes -- by virtue of being assholes -- would never consider doing it. By contrast, good guys -- by virtue of being good guys -- are prepared to pay this cost. Ergo, if the woman sees the man in question at her doorstep with flowers, she knows he's a good guy, and consequently will agree to go out with him. [Again, this a highly stylized view of the world, but I would submit to you that there is a degree of insight here, so it is ultimately useful]. What the good guy has done, in this instance, is send a costly signal to the woman of his "type": he is telling her, in effect, that he is not an asshole, but a good guy because he has done something that only a good guy would do.

Now consider college. People go to college for many reasons, to be sure, but one of them is to get a job after college that pays well and provides a relatively comfortable lifestyle. It is no coincidence that many lucrative careers are available only to those who have graduated college. And yet, there is little correlation between what we study at college and what we do in the work environment. So really, what is the point of going to college?

Some game theorists argue that going to college is a costly signal of one's intelligence. Again, go back to the courtship example, where we had two types of signal senders: assholes and good guys. In this example, let us again assume that there are only two types of people in the world: stupid people and smart people. Let us further assume that when an employer meets a job applicant, (s)he cannot tell whether the applicant is of one type (smart) or the other (stupid). Finally, let us assume that the employer would like to hire all the smart people who apply for the job, and reject all the stupid people that apply for the job. What can the potential employee do to "signal" to the employer that (s)he is smart, and thus should be given the job?

Well, going to college is the answer for some. If you agree with the assertion that completing college is easier for smart people than stupid people -- or that the cost of graduating college is lower for smart people than for stupid people -- then you must agree with the assertion that at some level of difficulty, stupid people will simply opt out of going to college because it is not worth the cost. Thus if you are facing a college graduate across the table as an employer, you are inclined to hire them -- not because the person learned something valuable at college, but because their having completed college is a costly signal of their ability. It is similar to the courtship story: by virtue of having done something that is beyond the capabilities of the other "type" (stupid people in the college story, assholes in the courtship story), you have signaled your type.
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What possible relevance does all this nonsense about college and flowers have to do with Nawaz Sharif? Well, not a whole lot in the grand scheme of things, but it is important in one key aspect: for those who want to believe Nawaz Sharif when he says all these grands things, but cannot believe him (people like me), a costly signal can help allay concerns of Nawaz Sharif's "type".

So to go back to our dichotomous framework, let us assume that there are two potential types Nawaz Sharif could take: true reformer, or hot-air balloon. If he is a true reformer, he truly believes everything he says about democracy and freedom and the independence of the judiciary and the supremacy of the parliament. If he is a hot-air balloon, he is simply saying those things to get back in power and eat more jalebis.

Assuming Nawaz Sharif is a reformer, what possible costly signal can he send to us skeptics to convince us? What actions or words, put differently, will be too costly for a hot-air balloon but easy for a true reformer?
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Imagine, for a moment, if you heard the following speech from Nawaz Sharif:
Merey aziz humwatano, Assalam-o-alaikum. We are at a critical juncture in our nation's history. Our movement has been successful in restoring the illegally deposed Chief Justice of Pakistan, Iftikhar Chaudary. For this we can all be proud. And yet, significant challenges remain.

To change the course of Pakistan's future, we must be honest about its past. To finally deal with the threat of militancy and terrorism, we must recognize where these forces came from, who supported them, and why it was such a misguided strategy. To adequately address the gross inequalities that pervade the socio-economic spheres of our state, we must first understand the structural imbalances of opportunity, education and health that have led to this deplorable status quo. To ensure sustainable and truly democratic processes, we must take heed of the people and institutions resposible for our ephemeral relationship with political freedom.

The virtues of remembering and learning from the past have been hammered into me by the events of the last two years. I have made many mistakes in my career -- and I'm not just talking about my hair transplant.

When General Musharraf fired Pakistan's Chief Justice two years ago, it reminded me of my ill-fated move against the judiciary twelve years ago. I, like Musharraf, was wrong to place constraints and impediments against the third arm of government from functioning freely. My party supporters should not have stormed the Supreme Court, and I take full responsibility for their actions that day. I should have fought as hard for Sajjad Ali Shah's independence as a judge as I did for Iftikhar Chaudhry's; I did not, and for this only I am to blame.

As I saw both General Musharraf and Asif Zardari attempt to aggrandize even more power and do away with checks and balances, I was reminded of my attempts to do the same, especially in my second term. I had little tolerance for political opponents -- from journalists to opposition parties to suspect supporters in the bureaucracy -- and sought to get rid of them. I treated the constitution and parliament with as little respect as a democratically elected figure could possibly do. I was not interested in democracy then, and seeing where my actions led has convinced me that dictatorship can come in the uniform of military fatigues as well as a crisp white shalwar-kurta. Indeed, this is why I have fought Mr. Zardari so hard in the last six months -- I have directed this movie before, and it does not have a happy ending.

Finally, a word about my opposition to the ghaddars of the PML-Q -- as well as my opposite to the late Mohtarma's flirtations with the forces of dictatorship. Once again, my opposition has roots in my personal history. My political career was kicked off as a protege of the most repressive force in Pakistan's political history -- General Zia-ul-Haq. Through the late 1980s and early 1990s, it was aided and abetted by the military and the ISI, who shared my then-indomitable hostility to Benazir Bhutto. I have learned the hard way that cooperation with repressive political forces for short-term gain has no place in a mature polity, and should be discarded as a viable option for any political leader worth their weight.

Many of the grossest and most criminally negligent of the mistakes made by Pakistan's leaders in the last three years have been committed before, including by myself. As a changed man, I have come to see the folly of my actions and, by extension, theirs. Only someone who has been to the dark side can truly claim to have seen the light. If you return me to power, I promise to uphold the 1973 constitution and the Charter of Democracy in both its letter and spirit. On this you have my word.

Pakistan paindabad.

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Why do I want to see the previous speech from Nawaz Sharif? Because, as yet, I have failed to see convincing evidence of the fact that he realizes he did anything wrong in his time in power. He has blamed every which actor in Pakistani politics except for himself. He has not acknowledged his mistakes. Consequently, it becomes more difficult to forgive and forget for rational observers such as myself, because as far as I am concerned, he will do the same things again when returned to power.

Recall my discussion of costly signals and separating equilibria. The difference between a true reformer and a power-hungry opportunist is that the former doesn't care about power per se, but only cares that those mistakes not be repeated. To that end, a true reformer will feel fewer qualms about being completely upfront and honest about his or her own shortcomings, especially shortcomings that are extremely relevant to present crises. A power-hungry opportunist, by contrast, will attempt to brush over those issues, because he or she will be concerned first and foremost with securing power. An admission of mistakes made, then, can be a costly signal of Nawaz Sharif's true type: it would simply be too costly for a power-hungry opportunist to pursue with any degree of certainty, whereas it should be a piece of cake for the true reformer.

So Mr. Lion of Punjab, which will it be?

Conflicting Emotions

I was jolted out of bed at 5:52 a.m. when a cousin called to inform me that the Chief Justice was being restored. I told him this was all a bloody drama and went back to sleep.

And yet by 8:45 I was in my car driving to the High Court feeling excited and nervous. The first thing that caught my eye as I entered the High Court compound was the large convoy of news vans decked out with their satellite uplinks. (I wonder what they’re going to do after this whole issue is settled, there’s going to be a whole lot of air time to fill.)

A large number of lawyers had gathered at the Court, but the scene did not in any way resemble the afra tafri of Lahore, Pindi and Multan. For one thing, I didn’t see a singe political activist. I had half expected MQM and PPP workers to come out and ‘celebrate’ the restoration of the judges, which, as our PM explained has been a cause that the government has always championed.

The sentiment held by most lawyers was a mixture of joy and cautious optimism – we’re after all we’re all cynical enough to believe that anything can happen between now and the 21st. Nothing much happened at the court, there were the mandatory slogans, speeches and cheers. But being part of the group and experiencing first-hand the culmination of a movement that has few parallels in the history of this nation did leave me feeling happy and proud.

I just wished it had been for someone other than the Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry (JIMC). I don’t like the man. Here’s why:- (1) JIMC is a poor judge; and (2) he is a political opportunist.


1. The Love Child of Rhadamanthys, Minos and Aeacus
He Ain't

There is almost universal acknowledgment amongst lawyers that he’s not an intellectual tour de force. His career as a legal practitioner was largely unimpressive and as a judge there’s nothing that set him apart, except for his ability to be at the right ability to take ‘suo moto action.’ I can understand that the path to judiciary is a crooked one and there are various abilities that one must have apart from having a good legal mind but JIMC's legal skills appear to me to be quite limited. JIMC just doesn’t appear to have the acumen to understand subtle nuances of the law or the ability to grasp the weight of his own decisions.


He is also a judge easily won over by the cult of personality so if a lawyer was well known he was sure to be respected, if he wasn’t (or if JIMC decided that he didn’t like someone) he would be publicly derided.

It’s important to look at one of the defining case of JIMC’s career, the Steel Mills Privatisaion case. His demeanor in court during the entire case, from what I’ve heard, was outright inappropriate and unprofessional; from the outset it was blatant to all and sundry that JIMC had made up his mind before the case had even been heard. In fact, he appears to have made it clear during the proceedings that he would continue to oppose the privatization of all ‘national assets’ in the future.

Moreover, the case also highlighted JIMC’s desire to oversimplify things . JIMC readily bought into the character attack on Arif Habib, and even Aqeel Karim Dhedi, who had nothing to do with case but like Arif Habib was characterized as this big evil stockbroker (I’m surprised they didn’t call them Jews!). This just wasn’t something JIMC should have even entertained, especially as this was a suo moto action.


Having read the order I also seriously doubt that JIMC understood the structuring of the deal at all but by applying flawed reasoning and delivering an order he’s muddied the water a whole lot. (You can read the whole order here, if you’re corporate lawyer / investment banker I would especially recommend pages 73 and 74.)

Now, I’m not saying that the decision was wrong just that the reasoning was wrong, it was too simplistic and aspects of the order have the ability of being easily exploited in the future.

This case could have been a debate about how Pakistan could reach a balance between public good and private right, a balance between engaging in the wider international economic world while protecting the interests of the Pakistani people. JIMC was in a position to at least start this debate and reflect on the issue with intellectual vigour so that lawyers over the years could build upon these foundations. He didn’t.

His conclusions were hardly any different than those reached by the common man, his intellectual acumen hardly reaching a level higher than that of a talk show pundit. Worse still was that he relished the attention he got from ‘serving and obeying the people,’ and this is the role, i.e. public appeasement, that he took most seriously. This brings me to my second point.


2. The Eternal Crowd Pleaser

The privatization of the Steel Mills received extensive media coverage and was presented to the public as a pay day for the then Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, the issue quickly became embedded in public psyche. The complexity of the deal was largely ignored, and as were vital points on the and in the opinion of the public the deal was rotten. The media attempted to focus the entirety of its coverage on the relationship between the bidders and Shaukat Aziz – for the media it appears that this was the first instance that they’d heard of where a prime minister, an ex-banker no less, was friends with a businessman!

JIMC readily bought into this (hence the suo moto action). Never for a moment did it appear that JIMC would do anything that the crowd didn’t like. And that in essence has been the trait that defines his career.

The years is 1989, Pakistanis have just spent a decade under military rule and have welcomed politicians with open arms. The Government of Baluchistan decides to choose a new Attorney General, JIMC. The AG post is one of the surest ways of becoming a High Court Judge, all you have to do is not piss off the government and they’ll reward you with a place on the bench. Of course becoming the AG isn’t that easy, it involves having just the right combination of friends who are lawyers and friends who are in the government. By 1990, under the same government, JIMC had been appointed a judge of the BHC at the young age of 42.

A decade later, an unpopular civilian politician is ousted by a popular military one, JIMC is one of the first people to take an oath under the newly imposed PCO. General Musharraf’s rule, and appointment as ‘Chief Executive’ is validated and JIMC jumps the seniority queue over the judges who either didn’t take an oath or were late in doing so. A decade after becoming a judge of the BHC, JIMC found himself in the Supreme Court. With 13 years to go before retirement, JIMC was guaranteed to become the CJ, all he had to do was play by the book.

Once there, he realized that he could play to a greater audience and would certainly have to do so if he wanted to acquire more fame and power, there was no higher office remaining. You know the rest. It takes skill and luck to be on the ‘right side of history’ and JIMC had both.

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And so here we are. I’m glad history was made, and to quote Bubs: "A relatively widespread movement has been able to force a dictator from office and peacefully achieve its aims."

There were political victories along the way as well. After the horrible events of May 12, MQM and PPP patched things up and that can only mean good news for the citizens of Karachi. The power of the media was unleashed and it is unlikely that it will be so easily repealed – now if only they can learn how to control themselves and inculcate a more ethical code of conduct.

P.S.

And finally, the contrast between the hiding Imran Khan and the parading Nawaz Sharif highlighted yet again the shallowness of the great Khan’s fan base.

Nawaz Sharif: Hero To The Masses

As usual, events in Pakistan move quicker than my ability to blog about them. While working on another post about Nawaz Sharif, I just learned that Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry is going to be restored. I have a couple of immediate reactions. More sober analysis will hopefully follow at some point later in the week.

First, it is easy to see how Nawaz Sharif comes out of this appearing as a hero to the masses in Pakistan. In the last eight months, him and his party have been primarily responsible for the exit of an unpopular President (Musharraf) and the rentry of an immensely popular judge (Chaudhry) -- all without a shot being fired -- when other important players vascillated on both questions. He can legitimately claim that he has been consistent and strident in his opposition to Musharraf and his support of Chaudhry. No other mainstream figure in Pakistan can say the same.

Second, at this early stage, it is unclear if this move was part of a Grand Bargain between Zardari, Gillani, Nawaz, and Kayani, or merely a concession by Zardari in an attempt to stave off calls for his removal and resignation. The former would be more amenable to Pakistan's long term interests -- plenty of research in the Poli Sci world has shown that elite pacts can go a long way to ameliorating political difficulties in divided societies -- but is infinitely more unlikely. The latter interpretation is probably more correct, but also more likely to lead to yet more instability as the inevitable PML-N/PPP showdown comes to a close. This drama is far from over.

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Chaudhry Restored, What Next?

Now that deposed chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry is going to be restored after a nearly two-year struggle, don't imagine for a moment that the political crisis in Pakistan is over. The relationship between the executive and the judiciary is going to be fraught with tension and both Chaudhry and Zardari are not the types to give an inch. Here are some sticking points that I think could ignite another crisis.

- If the Chaudhry Supreme Court finds Musharraf's November 3 Emergency unconstitutonal that will mean the end of the NRO. This could lead to a reopening of cases against Zardari and others in the PPP, including Rehman Malik and Prime Minister Gillani.

- The US is not going to be happy if the 'missing' persons cases start to be heard again. Let me add that I am all in favour of the judiciary hearing these cases, but it will lead to increased US pressure at a time when relations between the two countries are at a crucial juncture.

- It will become even harder for the PPP to keep the PML-N out of power in the Punjab. This will be rightly be seen as a victory for the right-wing parties and Nawaz Sharif, already the most popular leader in the country, will be strengthened. He is going to create major problems for the centre and the PML-N is now a step closer to power.

- The inside story of the PPP agreed to restore Chaudhry would make for interesting reading. Speculation says that Gillani has been in favour of restoring Chaudhry with Zardari implacably opposed. I would love to know is this was the first case of Gillani imposing his will on Zardari. If it is, the balance of power in Pakistan has changed.

- Lastly, while I have been critical of many of the tactics of the laywers' movement and hold Iftikhar Chaudhry in very low regard, it is worth recalling that Musharraf's actions were blatantly illegal. A relatively widespread movement has been able to force a dictator from office and peacefully achieve its aims.

Links On Jon Stewart Taking Jim Cramer Apart

I have a post planned on Nawaz Sharif (probably going to be published tomorrow) but until then, I thought you guys might find this collection of links useful.

First, the context. If you don't know, Jon Stewart went all Crossfire on poor Jim Cramer. The unedited and unbleeped videos are below for your perusal:






















































Anyway, here's all the stuff I've read on this remarkable and brutal exchange.

James Fallows thinks Stewart "did the journalistic sensibility proud".

Andrew Sullivan thinks Cramer "crumbled from the beginning...you almost had to look away."

The New York Times report says that Cramer (and CNBC) may yet "have the last laugh" as the buzz that this interview has engendered can only be good for television personalities.

Glenn Greenwald draws parallels between Cramer and their unquestioning and symbiotic relationship with financial newsmakers with the media and their unquestioning and symbiotic relationship with political newsmakers in the run up to the Iraq war.

Matthew Yglesias is worried about the people sticking up for Cramer -- for Cramer's sake, that is.

The Slate report says that Cramer "performed an arcane combination of self-promotion, self-defense, and self-flagellation".

New York magazine says CNBC's sister network MSNBC discouraged its producers and on-air staff to not give the issue air time.

P.S.: I'm sorry about the weird formatting for this post, but blogger is being a giant pain, it's two in the morning, and I frankly don't have the patience for this shit.

Friday, March 13, 2009

Breaking: Sherry Rehman Resigns

All the news channels are reporting that Sherry Rehman has resigned. End of days for this administration?

In order to learn more, Geo News interviews PPP leader (and Lyari gangster) Nabeel Gabol who states that there is no confirmation of Ms. Rehman's resignation. He adds that Mr. Zardari has not ordered a shut down of Geo News, but if he has then it should be condemned. In essence, Mr. Gabol has no idea what he's saying or who he's supporting.

8 Year Olds Should Not Want To Become Actuaries

There is something seriously wrong with the world when an eight year old, be he a prodigy, wants to become an actuary.

From the BBC:

A boy from Hampshire is thought be the youngest person to pass maths A-level with an A grade. Zohaib Ahmed from Chandler's Ford sat the A-level exam when he was eight. He was nine when the result came through.

Zohaib's 11-year-old brother Wajih, scored 96% in his further maths A-level examination.

His ambition is to work in the City as an actuary specialising in pensions and insurance.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Notes on the First Day of the Long March

I've had a long day and don't have the energy to write up a detailed piece on the Long March. Instead, here are some of the notes I jotted down throughout the day.

- The lawyers were, on the whole, very peaceful and well-behaved. I thought it was quite smart of them to arrive at the High Court in pairs or groups of three to bypass Section 144. Things got a bit testy once they had congregated at the court, as the police baton-charged them.

- The Jamaat-e-Islami were not interested in peace. Its activists arrived together and was seeking a confrontation with the police.

- A lot of the lawyers and political activists were arrested under the Maintainence of Public Order law rather than Section 144. The latter is a bailable offence while the former isn't.

- The scene at Toll Plaza was insane. To resist arrest the lawyers locked themselves in their cars. That wasn't close to an insurmountable hurdle for the police.

- There were a few burning cars. No more than a dozen. Unsure who was responsible for those.

- Good think I didn't follow Huma Imtiaz's Long March Drinking Game. My tolerance for alcohol has its limits.

- For television coverage of the Long March, I recommend Geo's hilariously-named 'March Room'. One person said, (I swear I am not making this up) "How funny that the Long March is in March."

Poorly Phrased Sentence of the Day

From Cricinfo:

According to the ICC, Sri Lanka Cricket (SLC) were unable to provide a guarantee during a teleconference on Wednesday that there would be no rains in Colombo during the tournament which runs from September 24-October 5.


Shouldn't the ICC be consulting meteorologists rather than administrators? And if they had provided a guarantee would the tournament have gone ahead? After all, the Pakistan Cricket Board did guarantee presidential-level security to visiting cricketers.

Barca Blitz Lyon, Ferguson Finally Puts One Over Mourinho, My Dumbass Predictions, And Much More

Lots to discuss, let's get right to it.
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The Barca-Lyon game was a joy to watch. It started scrappily, ended in a bad spirit, and yet was thoroughly captivating in the intervening 70 minutes. In about a quarter of an hour, Barca -- through the prolific trio of Henry, Eto'o and Messi -- put four past Lyon, before allowing one back just before halftime. Immediately after the break, Lyon added another to make it interesting before Barca slowly but surely ground them down.

Chasing shadows obviously had an adverse effect on Lyon's collective mood because challenge after surly challenge followed in the second half, with a host of yellow cards and Juninho getting sent off just before the final whistle. Keita added a fifth from practically the last kick of the game, and sent a message to the rest of Europe: Barca are back. Don't say you weren't warned. They have put that temporary blip of two losses (Espanyol, Atletico) and two draws (Betis and Lyon) behind. Even the goals they conceded were more as a result of a little conceit and a loss of concentration than anything major. Are they playing as well as they did between September and December? No, but no one in Europe is, or can.

Three trophies are there for the taking. How badly do they want them?

One final note: I really would like to see guys like Hleb, Gudjohnsen, Bojan, and Keita getting more of a go in the next two or three games. People like Xavi and the three up front need a break if they're going to be effective toward the crucial part of the season (May). Guardiola, if there's one criticism of him, has been relucant to rotate regularly, even when it's been clear the team needed a spark. Let's hope that changes now that Barca don't have any midweek games for the three weeks after playing 18 games in the last 70 days.
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Football is, more than any other sport, a game of inches. Around the 25-30 minute mark in their game against Man U, Inter finally hit their stride. Needing just one goal to gain the ascendancy, they saw Ibrahimovic hit the cross-bar with a nodded header, sent an angled shot just wide off the post after he had Van der Sar beaten, and Stankovic just missed with an audacious shot from the outside of his right boot. With a 15 minute period of sustained pressure, they had to score. I remember thinking that if they didn't score then, they'd get punished, and sure enough, Ronaldo's goal in the second half settled the tie.

The point is this: Inter were this close to getting a foot in the door. They didn't, and ultimately, looking at the 2-0 scoreline, no one can say it wasn't a fair reflection of the two teams on the night. The United juggernaut rolls on, Ferguson gets to enjoy his £300 bottle of wine, and Inter have to face uncomfortable questions about whether or not they can actually cut it at this level as presently constituted.
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So in my Champions League picks made about three weeks ago, I predicted (a) three out of four English teams getting booted, with only Arsenal getting through (all four English teams got through); and (b) Villareal getting through over Panathinakos, based on the idea that "it's crazy hard to get a result there [in Greece] for a visiting team (Villareal won away after drawing at home). In all, I enjoyed a 50% success rate, and really, Bayern-Sporting shouldn't even count as a correct prediction. In other words, don't ever listen to anything I say. Actually, now that I think about it, you people probably find that advice redundant.
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Some quick awards:

Most impressive performance:

I'm tempted to go with Bayern, but given they put twelve friggin goals past Sporting, I'm inclined to think the latter didn't show up. At the end of the day, you have to tip your hat to Livepool, who outmaneuvered Real at the Bernabeu, and then ran them ragged and made them look amateur at Anfield. Every time they rumors and doubts swirl about Rafa, his team puts in a monster performance in Europe. I have learned the hard way that you doubt them at your own peril.

Most pathetic performance:

Sporting. Again, twelve goals.

Darkhorse for the next round:

In this roller-coaster season of theirs, it is crazy to think that Chelsea have suddenly found the spirit and steel that has always made them so dangerous. I don't think anyone would consider them favorites or anything, but I think they're just fine with that -- many times, being an underdog can have a galvanizing effect on a team.

Most giddy:

The English press tomorrow. Get your puke-buckets ready.

Biggest question mark:

Real Madrid, no question. At least Inter and Lyon, two other teams who seem to find the last 16 an insurmountable obstacle in the last half decade, can be content with winning their domestic leagues. Real, barring a collapse by Barca, are going to be shut out for trophies this season. In addition, their club is in turmoil yet again, with another election for President soon to come, no doubt followed by (yet) another manager, no doubt concomitant with some combination of Ronaldo/Kaka/Messi speculation (they're unlikely to get any of those guys, but who cares about facts?). Keep your eye on this team; a severe implosion could lie ahead.
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The draw for the last eight is on Friday. Here are my rankings for teams in descending order for teams the average fan would want to see.

1. Porto
2. Villareal
3. Chelsea
4. Arsenal
5. Barcelona
6. Bayern
7. Liverpool
8. Man U

Thoughts?

UPDATE
: Comment of the day from a Guardian reader:
Well, at least the Gunners have shown they can spank Roma and score 7 against them as good as United.
UPDATE II: Man, I love the commenters on the Guardian. Here's one from Sid Lowe's piece on Barca being the only team capable of stopping the English teams:
I, for, one prefer Barcelona win the Champions League like Spain did at Euro 2008. For that matter, Iraq's win in the Asian Cup did dissipate some of the dark clouds over Iraq. Who remembers Greece's abject win in 2004? Greek nationalists, Republicans, Puritans and fiscal conservatives. Who remembers Spain's win in 2008? Pentecostals, Guardian readers, hedonists, Jazz musicians, fat chefs and rambunctious dogs. Barcelona winning will be for the good of the game.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

In The Midst Of Turmoil

And so it begins.

Lawyers and political activists from across the country are planning on leaving for Islamabad tomorrow. The government has made it clear that it will not allow this to happen and has not only sealed the capital but has also imposed Section 144 ( "Power to issue order absolute at once in urgent cases of nuisance or apprehended danger") in Punjab and Sindh thereby constituting all political congregations / protests unlawful. Moreover, political workers and leaders of the lawyers movement are being arrested throughout the country. However, now some reports are coming that police in some areas of Punjab are refusing to do so.

Meanwhile the government is treating us like complete idiots. This is what they've been saying (close approximation):-

Sherry: 'People's party believes in democracy and freedom of speech and will never take any steps that infringe upon these rights. But as a government our first duty is to protect citizens and maintain order and we have been forced by the provocative and traitorous actions of Nawaz Shariff.

Zardari: 'My promise isn't some Hadis which must be followed. Nawaz's actions in signing the agreement were political.'

Gilani: 'If I could end Governor Rule tomorrow I would but first Nawaz Shariff must stop his posturing' [read as: Zardari's screwed me over and now I'm fucked and have no izzat in Punjab but hey I got a Bentley out of the deal. It's so shiny!]

Noticing that the limelight's moving away from him, Sufi Mohd. has told a press conference that Qazi Courts will become full functional tomorrow - the day that lawyers launch their Long March. Talk about timing.

P.S. A warrant has been issued for the arrest of Imran Khan but he is nowhere to be found.

Monday, March 09, 2009

Champions League Thread

A quick note on Barca, and then I'm going to leave this as an open thread on Tuesday and Wednesday's results. I will be back on Wednesday evening with a report on Barca-Lyon and, perhaps, Inter-Man U.

I have a sick feeling to be honest. With Gabi Milito still out, and Puyol hurt this weekend, Barca are going to have to go without their two best central defenders. Add to that the fact that Abidal too is out (forcing Sylvinho to slot in at left-back) and the fact that Caceres is better at wetting his hair than actually dispossessing opposition forwards and the fact that Dani Alves is really a right-winger masquerading as a right-back and the fact that Barca's goalkeeper is a cartoon, you're set up for at least one, probably two away goals from Lyon. Which means Barca probably need to score three to go ahead. Which they can do certainly, but I wouldn't want to bet on it. To be safer and sounder, I really would like to see both Keita and Yaya Toure playing alongside Xavi in the midfield. Even then I wouldn't feel too comfortable.

Like I said, I have a sick feeling.

Comment away on this and the other games.

Sunday, March 08, 2009

Guest Post: Packed-Suitcase Politics

Sarah is an American friend of mine who has done quite a bit of research in Lebanon; she also visited Pakistan for my wedding last December. This week's attack against the Sri Lankan cricket team compelled her to write a post for us. Without further ado...
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When I woke up for the fourth time this morning (okay, several days ago now), I switched my alarm to NPR and lay sleepily in bed, listening to the world news. That’s when I heard about the attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore.


I was immediately upset (as I am at the news of any attack), but for very distinct reasons. To the international policy community, this attack just looks like a new link in a chain of events that inevitably leads to a Pakistan divided between the Taliban and the rest of the country. I’m sure that Thomas Friedman will write a hand-wringing op-ed about Pakistani nukes, do a drive-by “democracy will save them all” sermon, and go back to putting gold rims on his custom Prius. Thing is, I think many people are missing the point. If I hadn’t been to Pakistan, I never would have picked up on this (mainly because I live on the assumption that the rest of the world religiously obsesses over football). Of course, Ahsan (proving my forthcoming point, actually) beat me to it in his post:


“Nothing binds Pakistanis quite like the love of cricket.”


There’s nuance to this attack. This wasn’t an attack on a politician, a police station, a military convoy, or a “Western” organization. It was political in an entirely different way. This was the Sri Lankan cricket team—one of the few teams that will/would still play Pakistan on Pakistani soil. It’s also one of the few countries that doesn’t require Pakistanis to have a visa in order to visit. Having seen cricket games in every driveway, every empty lot, every deserted street, it’s clear that the Taliban is now aiming directly at a central aspect of Pakistani society—and at one of the few things that tie people together across classes, regions, and political affiliations. After this attack, it’s very likely that the Pakistani national team will no longer play at home. The Taliban are now basically saying “Oh, that made you happy? We can’t have that, because all of you aren’t out smashing your TVs and beating on Swat’s dancing girls like the rest of us. So let’s just make it clear who’s running shit around here: not you, and certainly not the government.”


For me, being in Pakistan was similar to many experiences that I’ve had in the past few years. I’ve spent around six months living in Lebanon—a place that has its fair share of crazy. It’s also another country where people tend to be surprised—and yes, concerned—when “unaffiliated” Westerners show up (by unaffiliated I mean that I don’t work for an NGO, government, or have family in the country). Once I get past the “What are you doing here?! Aren’t your parents worried? [Whispered] Who exactly do you work for?” stage, people are incredibly friendly, welcoming in a frequently over-the-top (but very, very appreciated) way, and always eager to tell me that the whole country isn’t full of—in their words—“tribals” “fundos” “the bearded ones” or “killers.” I still giggle internally at the thought of Lebanese and Pakistanis using terms that have been deemed egregiously regressive, un-PC, and Orientalist in the US.


I’ve seen how people can hedge on that statement. In Lebanon, they engage in what I call “packed suitcase politics.” In my experience, people will live in their home country as long as they can and through seemingly insane situations (I have friends who hoard toilet paper “just in case”). Yet when it comes down to men with guns potentially showing up at your door and threatening your kids, or, in one friend’s case, commandeering her bedroom balcony to shoot at another militia? You at least think about leaving—because you start to believe exactly the opposite of what you tell people. You start sitting around with friends or family saying: “You know what? This country is full of psychos in bad leather jackets with home-modified AK-47s. We are part of the .01% of people living there who aren’t totally nanners. We need to get out of here.”


Some Lebanese literally keep bags ready when things are tense. Many who live abroad have “exit plans” for their parents and siblings (dual citizenship or residency are clearly helpful, but I also know people who just make sure that their parents usually have a visa to come “visit” for graduation/meeting girlfriend/etc.). Still others only go back for the summers—and make sure to always have a round-trip ticket and two passports handy. In the context of this week’s events, I feel like especially when the Taliban starts attacking things like foreign cricket teams, Pakistanis—at least those who can—are going to start keeping those bags in the coat closet and their savings in Dubai.


I can’t say that I blame them, having friends who both stayed and left through various instances of civil violence. There's no right way to decide between leaving your country to a bunch of warlords (whether they're wearing turbans or Gucci) or waiting for some psycho with a Kalashnikov to shoot up BBQ Tonight. Yet Lebanon was a very different situation, and I’m just trying to draw a parallel along one dimension of the experience of internal conflict. I also don’t mean to be alarmist or to imply that Pakistanis are at the tipping point—the planes out of Karachi and Lahore aren’t stuffed with aunties heading for London, Toronto, or LA quite yet. But I guess my question is: what would it take? I think that because this attack is so calculated—at once obvious and unbelievable—that it may start a new line of conversation in Pakistan. Waziristan is one thing. Swat was a little different. But it seems like this attack in Lahore is putative (and that is not to downplay the tragedy and brutality of it, especially since Pakistanis protecting the Sri Lankan team bore the brunt of the casualties). It was designed solely as a signal to Pakistanis that, at least how the Taliban views the non-Taliban population’s priorities, there will be less and less that’s worth fighting for in Pakistan. That’s not to say that Pakistanis believe that or that Pakistan itself isn’t worth the battle. I’m just asking: if the Taliban is going to pursue this particular tactic, will Pakistanis view the situation as changing and push back harder than they have before? Or will they think of packing those bags?

Saturday, March 07, 2009

The Humility of Newt Gingrich

I don't know how a guy who has nothing to say beyond "lower taxes, please" became the intellectual leader of the Republicans. Just because he has such a high opinion of himself does not mean everyone else must follow. Here is what he's quoted as saying in the New York Times:

"I think I'm closer to Benjamin Franklin than George Washington...I’m a contributor to my country and to my times. If it turns out that there’s a moment when it makes sense to run, then I’ll run.


Back in school, I used to play a bit of cricket. I think I was closer to Sachin Tendulkar than Imran Khan. See, I considered myself a great batsman (average of about 11 per innings) and if called on to lead, would do so. But I prefered just contributing to my team through my bat.

"Well, that was Brazil -- they've just run out of money"

Paul Krugman takes us on a charming trip down memory lane:
I remember one personal incident: in the fall of 1982, during my year in Washington, I went to the Fed to talk to Ted Truman about Latin debt issues. I had to wait while he finished a phone call; eventually he came out and said, “Well, that was Brazil — they’ve just run out of money.”

Speaking of running out of money, have you guys read this Michael Lewis piece in Vanity Fair on Iceland? Excuse the pun, but it's kind of chilling. Here's a small excerpt detailing the problem, but I strongly suggest you read the entire thing:
Global financial ambition turned out to have a downside. When their three brand-new global-size banks collapsed, last October, Iceland’s 300,000 citizens found that they bore some kind of responsibility for $100 billion of banking losses—which works out to roughly $330,000 for every Icelandic man, woman, and child. On top of that they had tens of billions of dollars in personal losses from their own bizarre private foreign-currency speculations, and even more from the 85 percent collapse in the Icelandic stock market. The exact dollar amount of Iceland’s financial hole was essentially unknowable, as it depended on the value of the generally stable Icelandic krona, which had also crashed and was removed from the market by the Icelandic government. But it was a lot.

Not to be too simplistic in my synopsis of the piece, but Lewis basically blames nutty bankers who believed their own hype. Now, long-time readers know of my antipathy toward investment banking and finance -- to put it simply, I always thought they were overpaid, overbonused, and overrated. As it turns out, their overleveraging of money they didn't have is in large part to blame for the world's economic problems at present.

The funny thing is, until this crisis, no one thought it obscene and perverse that twenty-somethings who spent their college careers puking at frat parties made large sums of money manipulating the flow of money. The argument I would always get from friends and people I know on Wall Street was that, in effect, they were worth it -- that they provided a service which made ungodly amounts of money for their clients, and so a fraction of that ungodly sum, while still obscene to sans culottes such as myself, was actually a bargain. As Hilzoy says, events of the last 12 months have brought that hypothesis into question:
I have been hearing for years and years about how the financial services sector pays such exorbitant wages because the people who work there are so immensely talented that they are cheap at $50 million a year. I never particularly bought that line before. But I never imagined that all those Masters of the Universe would do quite badly. If we had paid them $50 million a year to go far, far away and leave our financial system alone, it would have been a bargain.

Remember, these are the same soul-less people who felt that in the midst of the greatest economic crisis in a near-century, and after having received public money to bail them out, giving ludicrous bonuses to themselves and redecorating their offices to include $1500 trash cans was a wise and prudent thing to do.

Look, I know there are exceptions. I know there are some bankers who are nice, and actually smart, and actually able to put three written sentences together in a coherent and readable paragraph. But I could say the same about Republicans, and frankly, it's not the exceptions to the rule that are going to inform my judgments about these people.

Friday, March 06, 2009

Lost Season Five: Episode 8

I blame the lateness of this review on the many hours I've spent Googling 'LaFleur'. The only thing I could come with is that i means flower in French. Since there isn't much that is flowery about Sawyer, could it be that the Lost guys have finally come up with a name that (gasp) has no significance? That unforgivable mistake aside, this episode gave Sawyer and Juliet a chance to shine. I'm really hoping we don't have a love quadrilateral between Sawyer, Jack, Kate and Juliet. Season three suffered a lot with all the lovey-dovey digressions, and any romance that doesn't involve Desmond and Penny will just be a diversion from the end-game.

Anyway, on to the bullets:

- Nice to see that the four-toed statue from Season two hasn't been forgotten. Not that we got any explanation for it. And not that I have any theory to explain it either. Sorry, I'm really down on my game today.

- Since Locke managed to stop the flashes by turning the wheel, why did he need to bring back the Oceanic Six? I suspect Richard Alpert and Ben have been lying to Locke because they have some other purpouse in mind for them. It certainly wouldn't be the first time Locke has been manipulated.

- On a related note, what were the really bad things that hapenned on the island that Ben mentioned to Jack in last season's finale? If he meant the flashes, then I don't think it qualifies. Most likely, Ben was lying yet again.

- I, and most probably everyone else, am still confused by the time travel. Faraday told the Losties that "What happened, happened." But isn't their simple presence changing the past? Had Juliet not been there, Amy's baby wouldn't have been delivered. And given Lost's track record, that baby is probably someone important.

- Hey, Jin learned English in the three years he was with Dharma.

- What did Sawyer do to convince Juliet to stay beyong the two weeks? Surely, she didn't fall for him that quickly.

- Which timeline are Locke, Ben etc in? Are they also in the Dharma period? And in the next episode, titled 'Namaste', I sure hope we see Ben as a kid.

- In the coming war between Dharma and The Others, which side will the Losties be on. I forsee a huge split occuring.

- Another episode with no Desmond. Can we get him back on the damn island already?

Thursday, March 05, 2009

Responding To The Four Different Types Of Indian Readers

Now every time something major happens in South Asia, we cover it on the blog and get a lot of first-time and one-time visitors thanks to google searches and blogs or websites linking to us. Many of these newbies leave comments. This post is a response to some of these commenters.

In general, we see four types of Indian newbies on the blog. I will arrange them in decreasing order of cuteness.

1. The Kumbayas

Description: I love these guys. They're so cute, I want to pull their cheeks. Honestly. Such well-meaning people. The Kumbayas are the type of people who won't run a red light even at 3 in the morning, who will laugh at their grandparents' stupid jokes just to make them feel better, and will take the blame for their kid brother getting caught with a cigarette ("they're mine; I don't know how they ended up in his drawer") just because.

Their comments will usually include (a) a message of condolences to the victims of whatever tragedy has engendered the discussion; (b) a message of reconciliation; (c) words of encouragement to the blogger in question; and (d) a message of hope for the future, usually but not always reflected in the idea of peace in the subcontinent. With the heavy doses of cynicism the readers of this blog are usually subjected to by its contributors, it is heartening to see that there are still some idealists left in the world. Of course, none of what they say is actually possible, but I love them for believing it anyway. How can you not?

Sample comment:
What makes me sad, is the speed with which people in both our countries (I'm Indian) jump to blame each other for every single incident.

It is just tragic that sports has been made so explicitly political. Sports is political, no doubt - but mindless, meaningless acts of violence in the arena of sport makes the world a much poorer place.

And another sample:
Guys, this is not the place and time for pointing fingers at each other and blaming each other. This is a sad moment for cricket and for Pakistan.Can't we express same solidarity and support to our friends from Pakistan as they did during Mumbai attack. This incident could have occurred anywhere- be it India, Bangladesh or SriLanka.This incident has again exposed the horrific truth that whole South Asia has become vulnerable to terrorism.Lets get united and fight terrorism together
My response: Thanks, guys! You're really the sweetest. Again, none of what you hope to achieve will happen, but every now and then, it's nice to read this stuff.

2. The sort-of-concerned and sort-of informed

Description: These people don't hold extremely strong views either way, but sound more analytical than group 1. Unfortunately, they are not very-well informed about the structures and processes of politics in Pakistan, though this does not diminish their desire to opine. Which is fair enough; Lord knows how much crap I've spewed about stuff I know nothing about. Their comments usually (a) have a diagnosis of what ails Pakistan and/or (b) have a prescription of how to fix Pakistan and/or (c) contain surprise and shock at some element of Pakistani politics or culture that would be plain to anyhow who pays regular attention.

Sample comment:
it's time for people of pakistan to get on the streets and start demanding action from the government instead of sympathising with it(remember what happened in mumbai,the anger was against government rather than the terrorists).

Start questioning the peace deal with taliban,the terror camps(freedom fighters.. as u say !!) in pak occupied kashmir
The sloppy media who doesn't see the constant flip flops of its government eg Your government wants " drones " which were said to "counter productive" by your prime minister.

Lastly i am scared in india if my neighbour in future might be taliban rather than pakistan !!

Frightening!!!!!

And another sample:
Pakistani citizens must openly raise their voices against terrorism and must demand action against the terrorists

- Ashwin Ramaswamy , India

And another sample:
I am a big fan of Pakistan cricket. And this incident is indeed sad for the such a great team. Having said that, I am sure there will be lot of like minded people in Pakistan who would want to get an answer to why this incident took place. I would be really glad to see a grand scale public questioning and raising of voices by citizens.

No doubt this incident is a dark spot in Pakistan's history. However, the only positive that Pakistanis can get from this is if they start finding the right culprits and making sure that these "dirts" are cleaned forever. Government of Pakistan has to pro-active and answerable.

I still feel that there are a lot of things in Pakistan that are way too secretive. I hope this incident will result in more transparency as a result of strong public pressure.

And another sample:
@AKS

I frankly didn't think a pakistani could openly espouse and be so vocal with thoughts like yours. Now I know better.

Seriously, are you safe in pakistan saying things you do?

Hope you and your friends here gain greater space in in all forms of pakistani public discourse.

My response: Alright, first of all, no one in Pakistan is going to rise up and condemn terrorism, certainly not when there are more important issues to get out on the street for, like protesting Danish cartoons or professing one's love for Dr. A.Q. Khan. Secondly, even if people did protest, nothing would actually come of it; do you guys really think the government here cares about public opinion? If it did, old man Chaudhry would be back on the Supreme Court instead of languishing at home for the last two years. Finally (and this goes to the last sample comment) please don't worry about us (the Rs.5 crowd): no one at the ISI even knows what a blog is, much less how to read one online. Plus, no one really cares what we say since we exist so far out of the mainstream that there really is no purpose in us saying anything except entertaining ourselves; no one, including our families, gives a crap about what we think. Also, this may come as a shock to you, but criticism in Pakistan of public figures and institutions is usually quite vociferous and public in newspapers and on television. We're certainly not pioneers in this respect; we're just the least important.

3. The relishers

Description: These people take great pleasure in Pakistan suffering at the hands of the militants it created. In fact, if I didn't already know that "schadenfreude"was a German word, I would bet that its origins were Indian. Anyway, the relishers -- in addition to taking pleasure in Pakistan's pain -- usually do three things. One, they usually preface their comment with a blatantly insincere disclaimer, like "I know I shouldn't say this, but..." or "I'm sorry I feel this way, but...". Two, they are experts in stating the obvious vis-a-vis the origins of these militant groups. Three, they forget that Pakistan has suffered from militancy for a long, long time, and thus usually insert something nonsensical like "NOW you know what we went through".

Sample comment:
Am I sick for feeling in a secret sick way, really happy now that you wonderful people from the land of the very pure are facing such problems?
You butchered so many millions and ironically your ancestors were butchered by that atrocity and joke called as Islam...now you are paying the ultimate price for following the religion of peace...do enjoy your time on earth, until sufi mohamed kicks your beautiful round asses. (oh wait he already has)

And another sample comment:
Many of you in Pakistan seem to have begun understanding the real issues facing the world and Pakistan too - that is all heartening, but it is not enough - you need to come out in force and protest every time there is an attack in Mumbai or Lahore or Barcelona...the Muslim Street is quick on the draw when it comes to cartoons in some 2 bit newspaper in Europe, where is that street when your butchers murder in Mumbai or London or 911?
Not to already rub salt, but you folks are now getting a taste of your own medicine...surely what you sow will be reaped...this is an ill wind that you sowed and now you are beginning to reap the harvest and how...

My response: What insight! I am taken aback by the depths of your empiricism!

4. The fascists

Description: These are the types of people who go ape-shit in the comments on Youtube cricket clips. You know who I'm talking about (if you don't, click here for my examination of nutty Indians and Pakistanis on Youtube). These people are almost always drive-by commenters (i.e. they come here, say something, leave, and then never come back). They usually express themselves using CAPS TO EMPHASIZE THEIR POINT or appallingly bad grammar and spelling. Their modus operandi is usually to say something over-the-top and offensive to create a stir, and sit happily as some poor naif takes the bait and responds. Which is fine. We welcome all fascists on Rs.5, not just the ones we agree with.

Sample comment:
ONLY SOLUTION
BAN ISLAM NOW...

And another sample comment:
This sick mofo of a country er Geographical expression called as Crapistan deserves what it is getting...I say let Osama get a hold of those bombs they have and use it to finish Islam in S Asia..Islam is a joke...it needs to end period...Fight and oppose Islam not because it is a religion but because it isn't...schadenfreude..yeah and am I loving it...damned now I want to remove the tube that supports these bastard crapistanis and finish them once and for all.

My response: So I have a book recommendation for you guys: this. It's actually very good, and you guys might pick up some pointers on your life mission. Best of luck.

Wednesday, March 04, 2009

Love Reign O'er Me

I just wanted to briefly expand upon the tag line: "Stay Safe, Lahore." The city has seen more violence in the past year and a half than probably ever before. The targets have ranged from organs of the state to the World Performing Arts Festival organized by Rafi Peer Theater and now the Sri Lankan team. Our thoughts and prayers are with the people of Lahore.

It is clear that this attack and the attack on the Performing Arts Festival are troubling developments, not just for the city but for the whole country; coupled with the loss of Swat, for that is what it is, and the obliteration of Waziristan, the situation is dire.

My hope is that we find the courage to face reality, challenge these forces of darkness and safeguard our future and the future of our children. My fear is that we've had our heads in the sand for too long and time has run out.

I Want to leave you guys with a touching rendition of a classic The Who song Love Reign O'er Me by the enchanting Betty LaVette.


Five Fun Videos -- One For Every Rupee

I have been very distressed over the last twenty four hours or so, primarily consumed with the future of the Pakistani state and the irresponsible detachment with (and the willful ignorance) of Pakistan's militancy problem by the majority of its citizens and decision-making elite. With that in mind, here are five videos (four of which have been posted before on this blog) that always make me smile, irrespective of how many times I watch them.

In the first, you are admonished to not waste the time, dear.



In the second -- another music video, by the way -- Kermit the frog causes multiple turns in the grave by the late Johnny Cash.



In the third, a reporter tries unsuccessfully to file a report just the way he wants it:



In the fourth, we see that Britain may indeed have talent:



And in the fifth, Argentina treat us to an orgasmic goal:



Readers are encouraged to add their own recommendations of smile-inducing videos in the comments section.

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Breaking News: Sri Lankan Cricketers Targeted In Lahore

I am at a complete loss to say something coherent about this right now. But that shouldn't stop you guys. Consider this an open thread on the topic.

UPDATE at 6:00 am GMT: I think I am sufficiently over my initial shock to make a couple of quick points.

First, Bubs reports in comments that a couple of prominent political figures have already blamed India. This is foolish for a number of reasons. First, and most important, nobody knows anything right now, and anyone who pretends to know is lying. Second, it strikes the rational observer as incredibly childish and petty ("You blamed us, so now we blame you"). Third, it is most likely untrue: it is not as if Pakistan finds itself lacking with homegrown militant groups, or does not have sufficient political violence for this to be yet another chapter in our state's morbid history. Fourth, if it is a foreign-based attack -- and I can't emphasize enough how unlikely I deem that scenario -- then it is more likely to have originated from Sri Lanka than India.

The second point I want to make is that whenever incidents like this happen, the nameless and faceless people who lost their lives protecting others always get forgotten (if they were ever remembered in the first place). Reports indicate five policemen died in the attack protecting the convoy. They deserve our thanks.

The third point I want to make is that international cricket is dead in Pakistan for the medium term, at best. Before this incident, defenders of Pakistan's right (privilege?) to host cricket matches used the argument, among others, that claimed that political violence could happen anywhere and that it was a random occurrence. To paraphrase Orwell, it is now clear to the international cricketing world that some acts of political violence are more random than others.

UPDATE at 6:52 am GMT: I recall a conversation I had with AKS in the summer of 2007, immediately after the Lal Masjid attacks. AKS opined that from a strategic/long-term perspective, it might be better if the Lal Masjiders did as much damage as possible. AKS' thinking (at the time; I don't think he subscribes to these views any longer) was that the more Pakistanis see the damage and destruction that is wrought by militants, the more they will appropriate ownership of this war -- instead of calling it "America's war" or something else similarly inane.

I am reminded of that argument today because nothing binds Pakistanis quite like the love of cricket, and if anything was going to convince the majority of pundits, public figures, and average Pakistanis of the threat of capitulation or indifference in this struggle, it would be an attack on cricket(ers). And yet I am willing to bet anything that the prepetrators of today's crime against Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and the sport of cricket, will not engender any form of ownership of this war, or any realization of the threat that the state faces from these groups (assuming that the Taliban or one of its offshoots was responsible). Instead, either India or America will be nonsensically blamed, retreats will be made into comfortable preconceived world views, and that favorite machine of Pakistanis will be switched on at full throttle: the conspiracy theory churner.

UPDATE at 7:09 GMT: I am going to try to get some sleep because I have to teach tomorrow morning. I am sure Bubs and AKS will try to keep things rolling as far as coverage on this blog is concerned.

UPDATE at 9:30 pm GMT: I would like to make another quick point on this issue (a point similar to this was made in the comments section). Reading the reactions -- on both news and sport websites and newspapers -- I cannot escape the impression that many observers thought of cricket as a sacred cow; as substantively different from all the other potential targets in Pakistan. "They would never attack sport" went the line. My question, obviously aided by hindsight, is: why? Why did people (including myself) think that athletes were somehow different? If funerals can be suicide-bombed, and girls' schools can be blown up, and political processions can be attacked, and Shia mosques can be destroyed, then why exactly are sports and sports figures a different kettle of fish?

The answer, of course, is that they are not.

Monday, March 02, 2009

Look Who's Talking

The best thing about the written word is that, under most circumstances, it doesn't go anywhere: it is constant, and remains in its original form and substance for future readers to examine and judge. Here is Condoleeza Rice -- then foreign affairs adviser to then candidate George W. Bush -- in the January 2000 issue of Foreign Affairs criticizing Bill Clinton's war in Kosovo:
If there is any lesson from history, it is that small powers with everything to lose are often more stubborn than big powers, for whom the conflict is merely one among many problems. The lesson, too, is that if it is worth fighting for, you had better be prepared to win. Also, there must be a political game plan that will permit the withdrawal of our forces -- something that is still completely absent in Kosovo.

Indeed.

Quote of the Day

Courtesy The Guardian:

Speaking this evening ahead of tomorrow's Six Nations match against England at Croke Park, O'Driscoll was asked what it was like to have played with the England coach, Martin Johnson, during their time together with the British and Irish Lions, and now to be on opposing sides.

His reply? "Knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit; wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad."

Explanations, please?

Whoever Wrote This Editorial For The News Clearly Smoked Some Excellent Garda* Prior To Writing It

Tell me I'm wrong. Just look at the way it starts:
The original definition of the word ‘drone’ was … ‘A male bee, especially a honeybee, that is characteristically stingless, performs no work, and produces no honey. Its only function is to mate with the queen bee.’ The drones that potter about in our skies these days are hardly stingless, they seem to work hard and the ‘honey’ they produce is the body-count at the end of their missions. Hitherto they have been invaders of our sovereignty, violators of our airspace and all-round naughty drones much in need of having their bottoms spanked by the Pakistan Air Force. Except that these naughty drones, far from creeping covertly over our borders to do their dirty work, set off from hives within our homeland as revealed courtesy of the poor-mans spook Google Earth last week. Nobody’s sovereignty is being invaded as the little devils are here with our by-your-leave, our guests, even.

*Garda=a type of hashish (from what I hear)

A Poll That Speaks For Itself (And Pakistan's Web-Surfing Population)

Please don't ask me why or how I went on this website. Just be thankful that I found this poll on it:


Oh dear.

Sunday, March 01, 2009

Deep Thought Of The Day

You know what's worse than taking a lead and then relinquishing it? Doing it twice. And you know what's worse than that? Having one of the leads you give up be a two-goal one. And you know what's worse than that? Giving up a lead with two minutes to go.

Barcelona have now failed to win in four games (two losses, two draws). Four -- incidentally -- also happens be the number of points that now separates Barca from Real. It was twelve two weekends ago.

Gulp.